【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国烟草行业前景展望
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：35
        【目录或简介】：

2010 should see calmer operating environment. After a challenging 2009,
this year looks calmer on the operational front, especially the second half:
We expect volume declines to settle back down to the 3-4% historical
average rate of decline for cigarettes and MST volume to grow in the 5-6%
range, but we will watch for any signs of a consumption shift from cigarettes
to MST due to the changed relative price levels. Still, we are cautious about
the 3 U.S. tobacco stocks (MO, RAI, LO) due to concerns about a more
promotional environment and the impact of FDA regulation on LO’s valuation.
■
Concern about FDA impact on LO. Following last month’s SAMHSA
report on menthol, we are growing concerned that parts of the federal
government are taking a more negative position in the menthol issue. We
still do not believe that a ban is likely, but we are not ruling out that the FDA
might take some action on menthol, e.g., further studies, bigger or different
warning labels, or reducing the amount of menthol. Due to this uncertainty,
we expect LO’s valuation premium to its peers to decrease this year. Other
aspects of FDA regulation seem to be very manageable for the U.S.
companies, especially after the color advertising ban was overturned in court.
But the uncertainty about the FDA this year reduces the ability of the U.S.
tobacco companies to improve valuations relative to the market.
■
Promotional environment might not improve in 2010. We believe that
we are starting to see lifecycle issues for Marlboro, which in 2Q09 lost
market share for the first time since 1Q03. Combined with continued pulse
promotions for Pall Mall and a downtrading environment in at least 1H10, we
expect more promotional spending across the industry in 2010.
■
International outlook improving. Given these domestic concerns, we
prefer international tobacco stocks for the year, where we expect
downtrading in emerging markets to improve by the middle of the year and
continued strong pricing in developed markets.
■
Downgrading sector and LO, upgrading PM. Given these considerations
we are downgrading the sector to Market Weight. The upside risk is a
rerating of the tobacco space due to a rotation back into staples stocks. We
are also downgrading LO to Neutral, as we are concerned that the menthol
uncertainty will lead to a reduction of the valuation premium over the peers.
With the better international outlook, we are upgrading PM to Outperform.
Currency is still a concern for the stock, but it appears to have started to
decouple from the exchange rate in the last 1.5 months.