【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国医疗行业前景展望
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：51
        【目录或简介】：
Where to Invest in Healthcare: 2010
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Summary: Physicians’ Grand Rounds provide doctors with crossdisciplinary
learning on the most interesting cases/issues in medicine. In this spirit, this
periodical will look at issues across the industry. In our second edition of
Grand Rounds, we compile our sector and stock views across Healthcare, to
focus investors on where to invest for 2010.
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Reform’s chances are fading: The surprise election of Republican Scott
Brown has altered the healthcare reform agenda. The situation is volatile
and driven by election year politics as November is not far off. For
healthcare to move forward this year, we believe that the most likely
outcome is a simplified bill achieving bipartisan support. We would expect
the majority of Healthcare sectors to see upside appreciation, tempered
somewhat until the path forward becomes clearer. Broader economic
concerns are also likely to benefit the sector's performance.
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Our other themes for 2010 are intact: Economic lag and trade-downs will
be a drag on top-line performance, 2010 pipeline looks promising, and M&A
will be a focus this year.
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Starting 2010, our team is constructive on healthcare. We have a
positive view on several subsectors including MedTech, PBMs and Skilled
Nursing among the most positive. We view Large Cap Biotech and Major
Pharma as cheap with catalysts to drive re-rating. We also believe that the
Drug Distributors, Medical/Surgical Distributors, and Hospitals have an
opportunity for upwards revisions to earnings. We find the Dental and Home
Health sectors as the most vulnerable.
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Key large cap picks (market cap >$10 billion): AMGN, COV, ESRX, GILD,
MRK, MDT, PFE, (all rated Outperform) and BAX (rated Neutral)
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Key mid cap picks (market cap $3-$10 billion): ALXN, CYH, EW (all rated
Outperform)
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Key small cap picks (market cap <$3 billion): MDSO, REGN, SUNH,
SKH, THC (all rated Outperform)
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Most vulnerables: AMED, BDX, BCR, BIIB, BMY, CFN, GTIV, GENZ, LLY,
LHCG, PMC, SYK (all rated Neutral)