我国省域物流效率的空间计量分析1

J_Melancholy

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收藏 2019-04-11

摘要

经济社会的发展以及货物往来的需要使得物流业的作用日益突出，而且还使物流业的组织模式，再到各个作业、功能环节发生全方位的变革。我国的物流费用占GDP的比率近年来有所下降，但仍远高于发达国家，物流效益并没有跟上物流规模增长的速度，本文选用基于投入产出分析的全要素生产率来真实地反映物流业的发展质量。省域间物流业全要素生产率具有互动关系，同时也会受到邻近省份的其它因素的影响。因此，本文在索洛模型下,通过空间计量分析对我国物流业全要素生产率及其影响因素的空间溢出效应进行研究。

本文结合2007-2016年省级面板数据，通过DEA-Malmquist指数法测算了物流业全要素生产率，将其分解为纯技术效率、规模效率和技术进步，并通过收敛性分析研究了地区差距处于收敛还是发散状态。测算结果显示：全国2007-2016年的TFP指数年均增加1.4%,主要是由于技术效率指数的增加。技术效率与技术进步的方向相反，规模效率是引起技术效率变化的主要原因。全国各省份的物流业发展差距有扩大的趋势且全要素生产率发散于各自的稳态水平。

在上述研究基础上，本文从生产要素因素、市场因素和政府因素三个方面，以及基础设施水平、人力资本水平、工业化、城市化、市场化、经济发展水平、对外开放程度、政府干预程度共八个具体指标对全要素生产率进行了影响机理分析及实证分析，并通过空间相关性检验，构造邻接矩阵、反距离权重矩阵、经济距离嵌套矩阵三种不同的空间权重矩阵，基于新经济地理学的理论利用空间面板模型和动态空间面板模型进一步研究了各影响因素对物流业TFP的空间溢出效应及长短期效应。研究结果显示：物流业TFP在空间上存在负相关性，在时间上具有惯性效应；各影响因素对物流业TFP的影响主要是在短期。工业化对本地物流业TFP有显著的促进作用；经济发展水平和对外开放水平对本地及邻近地区的物流业TFP都有显著的促进作用；城市化对本地及周边地区物流业TFP有显著的负面影响；政府干预对本地的物流业TFP有促进作用，对其它地区则有负面影响，总效应并不显著。人力资本、市场化和交通基础设施对物流业TFP的影响不显著。最后，针对物流业发展存在的问题，提出促进物流效率提高的政策建议。

关键词：全要素生产率；收敛性；影响因素；空间溢出；物流业

Abstract

With the development of economy and society and the need of goods exchange, the role of logistics industry has become increasingly prominent.In addition, the organizational model of logistics industry will be changed in all aspects of operation and function.The ratio of logistics cost to GDP in China has decreased in recent years, but it is still far higher than that in developed countries,logistics efficiency has not kept pace with the growth of logistics scale.This paper chooses total factor productivity based on input-output analysis to truly reflect the development quality of logistics industry.There is an interactive relationship between provincial and regional total factor productivity of logistics industry, and it will also be affected by other factors in adjacent provinces.Therefore, based on Solow model, this paper studies the spatial spillover effect of total factor productivity and its influencing factors in China's logistics industry through spatial econometric analysis.

Based on the 2007-2016 provincial panel data, this paper calculates the total factor productivity of logistics industry by DEA-Malmquist index method and decomposes it into pure technical efficiency、technical efficiency and technological progress,and studies whether the regional disparity is convergent or divergent through convergence analysis. The results of the calculation show that:The TFP index of 2007-2016 year increases by 1.4% annually, mainly due to the increase of technical efficiency index. The direction of technical efficiency and technological progress is opposite. Scale efficiency is the main reason for the change of technical efficiency.The development gap of logistics industry in all provinces of China has expanded and the total factor productivity has spread to their steady state level.

On the basis of the above research, this paper makes an influence mechanism analysis and empirical analysis on the factors that affect the total factor productivity from three aspects:factors of production、market and government,and eight specific indicators: Infrastructure Construction、Human Capital Level、Industrialization、Urbanization、Marketization、Economic Development Level、Opening-up Level and Government Intervention Level.This paper constructs three different spatial weight matrices: adjacency matrix, inverse distance weight matrix and economic-distance nested matrix, uses spatial panel model and dynamic space panel model based on the theory of economic geography to further study the spatial spillover effects and long-and-short term effects of various factors on the logistics industry TFP through spatial correlation test. The results of the study show that:The logistics industry TFP has a negative correlation in space and has an inertia effect in time .The influence of various factors on logistics TFP is mainly in the short term. Industrialization has a significant role in promoting the local logistics industry TFP; The level of economic development and the level of opening to the outside world have a significant promotion effect on the logistics industry TFP in the local and adjacent areas; The urbanization has a significant inhibitory effect on the logistics industry TFP in the local and adjacent areas; Government intervention has a positive effect on the TFP of the local logistics industry, but has a negative effect on other areas, and the total effect is not significant. The impact of human capital,marketization and transportation infrastructure on the TFP of logistics industry is not significant. Finally, aiming at the problems existing in the development of logistics industry, it puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the improvement of logistics efficiency.

Keywords:;Total factor productivity;Astringency; Influencing factors; Spatial spillovers;Logistics industry

2.1.1物流业TFP的研究对象及方法 4