Impacts of lower oil consumption on world oil prices  
TABLE OF CONTENTS  
1.        STUDY OBJECTIVES ........................................................................4
2.        MODELLING ....................................................................................5
2.1.          POLES: a general description........................................................................................... 5
      2.1.1.     Structure of the model .................................................................................... 6
      2.1.2.     Electricity and Transformation System module ............................................... 7
      2.1.3.     Hydrogen production and use.......................................................................... 7
      2.1.4.     International Energy Prices module ................................................................ 7
      2.1.5.     Inputs ............................................................................................................. 8
      2.1.6.     Outputs ........................................................................................................... 8
2.2.         Transport module .................................................................................................................. 8
      2.2.1.     Modelling the road transport sector ................................................................ 8
      2.2.2.     Integrating emission targets for new vehicles ................................................ 9
      2.2.3.     CO2 emissions............................................................................................... 10
      2.2.4.     Assumptions.................................................................................................. 10
      2.2.5.     Update of data............................................................................................... 11
3.        RESULTS .......................................................................................12
3.1.          Europe : road transport and energy consumption.............................................. 12
      3.1.1.     Vehicle consumption ..................................................................................... 12
      3.1.2.     Car fleet composition .................................................................................... 12
      3.1.3.     CO2 emission profiles.................................................................................... 13
      3.1.4.     Oil consumption ............................................................................................ 14
      3.1.5.     Energy mix .................................................................................................... 15
3.2.          Impact on European imports......................................................................................... 16
4.        IMPACT ON WORLD OIL PRICES AND EUROPE’S ENERGY BILL......19
   4.1           International oil prices.................................................................................. 19
   4.2           European energy bill ..................................................................................... 21
5.        POTENTIAL CRITICISMS ...............................................................24
5.1       Methodology............................................................................................................................... 24
5.2       Technological options............................................................................................................ 24
5.3       Policies.......................................................................................................................................... 24
6         CONCLUSIONS ..............................................................................25
APPENDIX 1: MODELLING THE CAR FLEET.............................................26
APPENDIX 2: DETAILED RESULTS..........................................................27

2009年2月的报告