出版者：Morgan Stanly
格式：PDF
页数：59
时间：2010.1.14

Abstract:
Buy favored hardware tech names at early stage of
up-cycles: The power of corporate PC refreshment and
the mobile Internet boom remains underappreciated, in
our view. These factors, on top of lean inventory, should
continue to drive earnings upside in 2010. We expect
most OBM/EMS companies to outperform ODMs, given
greater operating leverage from margin expansion as
scale improves. We generally prefer the handset
components (share gains/margin expansion) over PC
components (intensifying pricing pressure).
• Overweight: Acer, FIH, Hon Hai, HTC, Wistron, ZTE.
• Mid- to small-cap ideas: AAC, Kinsus, Merry,
Silitech, and Unimicron.
• Cautious: CCI, Catcher, Epistar and Everlight.
Key trends: Based on themes below, we think the key
challenge in 2010 relates to component supply rather
than demand (up-cycle) / inventory risks (stay low).
• At the start of up-cycles in PC and mobile
Internet: We believe a corporate PC replacement
cycle (aging base + Win7 + cloud computing) and a
big mobile Internet cycle (3G inflection +
content/app/social networks/UI + attractive devices)
will fuel industry growth in 2010 and onwards.
• Aggressive restocking is yet to begin; CAPEX
under control: Low inventory levels and cautious
optimism of global OEMs are key signals here.
Key debate – how much is in the price? We believe
upside risk remains: Preliminary 1Q10 sales appear to
deliver roughly 20–25% of full-year consensus sales in
most of cases, implying risk skewed to upside. That
suggests current valuation (mid-cycle P/E) on
consensus may not be as high as they show; and we
think there is chance for higher P/E multiples while
visibility extends to 2011e in 2H10. In terms of downside
risks to margins, we would monitor closely component
price trends, currency movements (NT$ & Rmb against
US$), interest rates, and / or labor cost hikes.