主题为【学道会】活动，点击了解详情
我会不定期在主题帖里记录我的学习内容（主要为网易公开课和TED，有兴趣的坛友可以跟帖和我一起学习）
视频链接
Think you're good at guessing stats? Guess again. Whether we consider ourselves math people or not, our ability to understand and work with numbers is terribly limited, says data visualization expert Alan Smith. In this delightful talk, Smith explores the mismatch between what we know and what we think we know.
How about the next question? This is asking about what the average age is,
so the age at which half the population are younger and half the population are older.
And I thought 35 -- that sounds middle-aged to me.
Actually, in Exeter, it's incredibly young, and I had underestimated the impact of the university in this area.
The questions get harder as you go through. So this one's now asking about homeownership:
For every 100 households, how many are owned with a mortgage or loan?
And I hedged my bets here, because I didn't want to be more than 50 out on the answer.
And actually, these get harder, these questions,
because when you're in an area, when you're in a community, things like age -- there are clues to whether a population is old or young.
Just by looking around the area, you can see it.
Something like homeownership is much more difficult to see,
so we revert to our own heuristics, our own biases about how many people we think own their own homes.
Now the truth is, when we published this quiz, the census data that it's based on was already a few years old.
We've had online applications that allow you to put in a post code and get statistics back for years.
So in some senses, this was all a little bit old and not necessarily new.
But I was interested to see what reaction we might get by gamifying the data in the way that we have,
by using animation and playing on the fact that people have their own preconceptions.
It turns out, the reaction was, um ... was more than I could have hoped for.
It was a long-held ambition of mine to bring down a statistics website due to public demand.
那么下一个问题呢？这是问关于年龄的中位数，
也就是该地区大于和小于这个年龄的人口数相等。
我以为是35--那对我来说是中年。
实际上，在埃克塞特，结果是惊人的年轻，是我低估了大学在这个区域的影响。
随着测试的进行，问题的难度会增加。这个问题有关房屋所有权：
在一百个家庭中，有多少个是有贷款或借债的？
我没有直接选出脑海中的数字，因为我不想有超过五十个。
实际上，这些问题变得越来越困难，
因为当你在一个地区，在一个社区，人口是否老龄化或是年轻化这样的事情，是很容易找到线索的。
看看周围环境就知道了。
像房屋所有权这样的事要观察起来就困难得多，
所以我们还原了我们的启发法，关于我们自认为有多少人拥有房屋所有权的偏差。
然而真相是，当我们发表这个测试时，我们所依据的普查数据已经是好几年前的了。
我们有一个在线应用，你可以输入邮编，然后得到过去几年的数据。
所以，在某种程度上，这是有点儿过时的数据。
但是我很感兴趣会得到什么样的反应，用我们已有的方式去使数据游戏化，
通过使用动画以及利用人们会有先入之见这一事实。
结果是，反应... 比我所期望的要好。
对我来说，运营数据网站需要持久的雄心，因为公众有着庞大的需求。
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