【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月北美传媒行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：46
        【目录或简介】：

Media
Recent Pullback an
Opportunity to Revisit Media
Investment conclusion: We reiterate our Attractive
view of the Media industry, which we believe offers
15-20% upside on average and 25%+ upside in our OW
names through YE10. Concerns over the pace of an
advertising recovery and the potential for a consumer
recovery in the broader market have led Media to
underperform by ~250 basis points YTD. However, we
believe the market is underestimating the multi-year
earnings growth in this group from both cyclical and
secular drivers. Mid-cycle earnings remain 12-24
months away and valuation levels are appealing again.
Half of our above-consensus advertising growth
in ’10 from auto and political: On the cyclical front, we
believe both local and national advertising trends
continue to pace well, with local an area where auto and
political can drive additional upside in 1H10. MS’ bullish
view of auto sales growth in ’10 along with the potential
from political spending suggest that roughly 50% of our
4% advertising growth expectation in ’10 will come from
those two categories alone. Looking to ’11, where we
are 5-10% above consensus on media earnings for
OW-rated names, we see ad growth of ~3% initially.
Secular themes around content monetization create
fundamental and strategic opportunities: It is good
to be a content owner these days. In addition to cable,
satellite, and telco distributors driving up the price of
content, emerging online distribution models are also
likely to highlight the value of high-end (i.e. large
audience) content. We are most acutely seeing this in
the rapid escalation in price points for broadcast network
retransmission, and in industry discussions around
migrating “free” online TV services to pay models.
What’s next: We expect 4Q09 earnings to come in at or
above consensus for the group and 1Q10 commentary
to be constructive. Companies that illustrate to the
market that the cost discipline required to survive 2009
will persist in 2010 and is “normal course” will see the
greatest operating leverage and multiple expansion.