【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月英国房屋建筑行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：127
        【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Executive Summary........................................................................... 3
We currently see 35% upside in the UK House builder sector .................................................3
New build volumes forecast to increase 10% in 2010 .............................................................4
House builders will see a positive mix effect in pricing ............................................................5
EBIT margin bounce back by 2013............................................................................................6
Balance sheets now robust, with potential for NAV write-backs ..............................................6
Industry key themes.......................................................................... 9
Value across the sector................................................................... 10
We see over 35% potential upside in UK house building stocks............................................10
Volumes up 10% in 2010................................................................. 13
New build volumes forecast to increase 10% in 2010 ...........................................................13
Economic drivers ....................................................................................................................17
Mortgage approvals are key to housing demand....................................................................21
Other short term risks to volume:...........................................................................................24
New build price increases............................................................... 26
House builders will see a positive mix effect in pricing ..........................................................26
Selling price inflation returning in 2012 ...................................................................................26
Supply is key factor to pricing.................................................................................................28
Factors which affect supply on the secondary market ...........................................................28
Factors which affect supply in the new build market..............................................................29
Margin bounce back by 2013.......................................................... 31
Land acquisitions to contribute to P&L significantly by 2012..................................................31
Cost savings on build costs still to be seen ............................................................................34
Operational leverage will benefit EBIT ....................................................................................35
Government impact on margins..............................................................................................36
Balance sheets look secure............................................................. 38
Minimal debt in sector, focus moving to land acquisition.......................................................38
Net assets write-downs are over, now what about write ups ................................................40
Dividends forecast to return but yield may be unexciting.......................................................42
Calendar of events........................................................................... 43
Company summaries....................................................................... 44
Barratt Developments ..................................................................... 45
Bellway............................................................................................. 57
Berkeley Group Holdings PLC ........................................................ 67
Bovis Homes .................................................................................... 77
Persimmon ....................................................................................... 87
Redrow ............................................................................................. 97
Taylor Wimpey............................................................................... 109
Appendix A..................................................................................... 119