55th Edition
The Equity Gilt Study has been published continuously since 1956, providing data, analysis
and commentary on long-term returns from financial assets in the UK and US. Our UK
database begins in 1899, while the US database starts in 1925. The US data are kindly
provided by the Centre for Research in Security Prices at the University of Chicago Graduate
School of Business. Our purpose in publishing this data and commentary is to provide
investors with a perspective on long-term asset returns. In the 2010 Study, Chapter One
places recent financial crises into the context of long-run variations in the level of global
savings. The article then examines how these savings flows may diminish in the years
ahead as a result of inexorable demographic processes. We draw some conclusions about
returns from equities and bonds over the next decade. In Chapter Two, Michael Dicks from
Barclays Wealth examines some ways in which asset bubbles can be systematically
identified. Unless policymakers become extraordinarily successful in preventing the inflation
of bubbles, Michael argues that investors should be able to tap a decent source of alpha by
identifying and avoiding future bubbles. Chapter Three, authored by Sree Kochugovindan,
examines the historical record of past equity market recoveries from deep bear markets,
isolating the factors that may determine the strength and duration of such recoveries. As
always, the remaining chapters are devoted to an analysis of historical returns from a
variety of asset classes in both the UK and US, together with the relevant data.
We hope you enjoy the essays and find the data useful.
Tim Bond, Sree Kochugovindan Michael Dicks
Barclays Capital Barclays Wealth
Website: www.equitygiltstudy.com
E-mail: equitygiltstudy@barcap.com

TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................... 3
CHAPTER 1 – FROM FEAST TO FAMINE........................................................................................ 4
CHAPTER 2 – BUBBLE IDENTIFICATION AND SOME IMPLICATIONS.....................................22
CHAPTER 3 – DISSECTING RECOVERIES .....................................................................................32
CHAPTER 4 – UK ASSET RETURNS SINCE 1899 .........................................................................36
CHAPTER 5 – US ASSET RETURNS................................................................................................41
CHAPTER 6 – BARCLAYS INDICES................................................................................................45
CHAPTER 7 – TOTAL INVESTMENT RETURNS............................................................................70