【出版时间及名称】：2010年澳大利亚证券市场展望
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：57
        【目录或简介】：
It's reasonable to expect the market to continue to recover
Tony Brennan
Strategist
(+61) 2 8258-1630
tony.brennan@db.com
Tim Baker
Research Analyst
(+61) 2 8258-1376
timothy.baker@db.com
Deutsche Bank AG/Sydney
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LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Contents
Page
Model portfolio 2
Portfolio strategy 3
Portfolio characteristics 4
Market outlook 5
Major sector outlook 19
Mining 27
Banks 36
Industrials 46
Forecasts
2-Feb Jun-10 Dec-10
ASX200 index 4605 5500 6000
RBA cash rate 3.75 4.00 4.50
10-year bond yield 5.51 5.50 5.00
Global Markets Research Company
􀂄 Equity markets have begun the year nervously, perhaps not so much because
of any genuine deterioration in the earnings outlook, but rather some
anxiousness that markets might have got a little ahead of actual
developments. In that sense, the retracement might be seen as similar to that
which occurred for a few weeks in June last year, and another in late October,
when markets consolidated after strong gains. So far, the recovery in equities
remains typical of those that have followed major corrections in the past –
with the strong rebound initially – and further solid gains this year would not
be unusual, as markets continue to rise off their low base.
􀂄 For that to happen, improving fundamentals need to provide justification, and
for the Australian market that seems likely. After the recent retracement, the
Australian market PE ratio on estimated year ahead earnings has dropped to
around 13x, about 10% below normal, but there doesn’t seem great reason to
doubt the earnings. The economy appears to have picked up and, after the
downturn, one to two years of solid earnings growth again is what generally
transpires. Even if the economy is contained to only growing at trend because
of limited moderation in inflation, and if interest rates have to rise a bit more
to ensure this, the earnings growth can still be achieved. And if the market
doesn’t rise to reflect this, it will come to look increasingly undervalued.
􀂄 Developments abroad will also impinge, but again there doesn’t seem serious
cause at present to doubt further improvement. Countries that weathered the
crisis better are starting to lessen the policy stimulus, in particular China, but
that is to keep their economies on a sustainable path, and it seems
pessimistic to assume at this stage that this can’t be done fairly successfully.
Meanwhile, the economies that suffered more are mostly now recovering,
importantly the US, and there the greater concern is that the recoveries falter
later in the year as the initial impetus wanes. That remains a risk, but even if it
did play out and the US market lost momentum, some decoupling of the
Australian market isn’t implausible, with the stronger outlook and ties to Asia.
􀂄 Hence, we see the economic recovery as likely to continue to underpin the
rebound in the market, and our end year target for the ASX 200 remains 6000.
Immediately inside the report we summarise our sector and portfolio strategy.