【出版时间及名称】:2010年2月北美能源行业研究报告
【作者】:加拿大丰业银行
【文件格式】:PDF
【页数】:148
【目录或简介】:
Contents
Market Weight Pipes, Market Weight Utilities (Short Term), Underweight IPPs 3
2010 Energy Utility/IPP Stock Preferences and Q4/09 Changes 6
Quarterly Review 7
Scotia Capital Observations/Conclusions 8
Group Outperformance History 9
Comparison to 1873 and 1929 Less Relevant 13
P/E Rally Also Points to Credit Crisis Being Over 14
2010E-2011E EPS Growth, ROEs, and Valuation 14
Rating Changes in Q4/09 20
Q1/10-Q1/11 Interest Rate Outlook 21
2010E EPS and ROE 21
Normalized Total Return Expectations Unchanged 22
Dividend Yields Versus Government Bond Yields 23
EV/EBITDA Comparison with Energy Utility Income Trusts and LPs 26
Frontier Gas Pipelines on Hold 28
Conclusion: Market Weight Pipes, Energy Utilities (Short Term), and Underweight IPPs 28
Q3/09 Canadian EPS Summary and Observations 29
Q3/09 U.S. EPS Summary and Observations 30
Canadian versus U.S. Energy Utility Stocks 31
2010 Changes in Canadian and U.S. Energy Utility Taxation 33
Canadian Dividend History 34
Credit and Financing 36
Q4/09 Canadian Credit Observations 36
Q4/09 U.S. Credit Observations 38
Q4/09 Financing/Restructuring 39
M&A Activity 40
Recent Initial Public Offerings/Equity Financings 43
North American Power Market Highlights 44
United States Power Market Overview 44
Canada Overview 45
U.S. Influence on Canada 45
U.S. Natural Gas Production and LNG Import Trends 46
2010 U.S. Coal Trends 48
U.S. Regulatory Overview 54
Coal/Petroleum Coke Gasification Developments 54
U.S. Re-regulation Possible Under Democrats 57
U.S. 2010 ROE and Equity Bases Remain Higher Than Canada’s but Narrowing 57
Canadian Regulatory Overview 58
Canadian Power Trends 61
Provincial Energy Developments 61
Global Warming, Kyoto, and Carbon Trading Update 77
Canada Update 79
U.S. Update 81
Other Global Climate Change Updates (Ex Canada/U.S.) 85
Carbon Trading to Soar 86
CO2 Capture Technologies 87
Global Climate Change / CO2 Update 92
Biopower Growth 103
Non-Carbon Growth Conclusions 103
Liquefied Natural Gas Developments 104
LNG Outlook 104
Canada LNG 105
U.S. LNG 105
Summary and Conclusion – Sharp Global LNG Import Growth Price Sensitive 106
Major Gas Pipeline Projects 108
Frontier Gas Pipelines – Joint Review Panel Conclusions Positive 108
Natural Gas Pipeline Consolidation 111
Major North American Oil / Condensate / CO2 / Ethanol Pipeline Projects 116
Other Enbridge Oil Pipeline Proposals 118
Condensate Pipeline Projects 120
CO2 Pipelines 121
Oil / Condensate / CO2 / Ethanol Pipeline Project Conclusion – Bullish 123
Nuclear Power Update 124
Nuclear Power Gaining Acceptance, Again 124
New Nuclear Plant Construction Costs 128
New Nuclear Plant Features 129
Appendix 1 – Canadian Energy Utilities & Pipelines – Forecasts and Recommendations 131
Appendix 2 – High Yielding Energy Utilities’ and Pipelines’ Share Price Performance,
Dividend Yields, and P/E Ratios 132
ATCO Ltd. 132
Canadian Utilities Ltd. 133
Emera Inc. 134
Enbridge Inc. 135
Fortis Inc. 136
TransAlta Corporation 137
TransCanada Corporation 138
S&P/TSX Composite Index 139
Appendix 3 – Tax Rates for Dividends and Interest 140
Appendix 4 – Provincial Energy and Conservation Initiatives 141
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