【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月美国人力资源行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：31
        【目录或简介】：
Reiterate Buy's on Manpower and TrueBlue
While market frets over the potential deceleration of the US economy and EU risk,
the staffers continue to deliver above expectations growth. Over the last month
our 2010 estimates have risen despite weaker than expected gross margins
holding back estimates from rising even further. Compared to last cycle, the
stocks are attractive on forward multiples. TBI is now on only 14.5x our 2011E EPS
while MAN is on 18.8x time. We feel the current valuations and estimates have
significant opportunities for upside thus we reiterate our Buys on MAN and TBI.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Results
Top picks
Manpower (MAN.N),USD51.49 Buy
TrueBlue (TBI.N),USD14.56 Buy
Companies featured
Manpower (MAN.N),USD51.49 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 0.74 1.03 2.74
P/E (x) 58.8 50.0 18.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.0 15.6 8.6
TrueBlue (TBI.N),USD14.56 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 0.21 0.47 1.00
P/E (x) 51.7 31.0 14.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.9 10.8 6.1
Robert Half (RHI.N),USD26.40 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 0.24 0.44 0.89
P/E (x) 93.5 60.0 29.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 22.2 21.0 12.9
Resources Global Profession (RECN.OQ),USD18.34
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 0.39 -0.17 0.35
P/E (x) 46.7 – 52.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.1 131.4 15.5
Global Markets Research Company
Temp growth continues- best growth on record
Based on the nearly 20 years of data for the Temporary Help Services series, the
current year growth in temps from August to January at 3.0% (unadjusted) has
significantly outpaced the non-recessionary year average of -5.8% and the second
best year at -1.8% (1993). We think this is an indication that companies are using
temps more heavily than historical patterns. Companies are more heavily hedging
their P&L costs post the recent near-depression experience, and due to fears
about the strength of the recovery.
Permanent hiring suggests Corporate America cut headcount too much
We heard from Robert Half on their most recent call that perm is coming back
faster than expected, suggesting Corporate America cut headcount too deep.
4Q’s strong 5.7% GDP growth rate led to the immediate need to hire new staff.
Perm hiring has coming back nearly coincident with temp acceleration, about two
quarters earlier than in a normal cycle.
January was the first YoY growth in temps in 33 months (March 2007)
It was great to see some slight temp volume growth in January after the worst
temp recession on record. While the headline job losses were a slight
disappointment, there was a lot of other underlying strength in the monthly
employment report: 1) household data showed a strong pickup in employment in
January, 2) the manufacturing sector added jobs for the first time 3-years, 3) the
manufacturing workweek increased 0.2 hours to 40.8, and 4) manufacturing
overtime increased 0.1 hours to 3.5. With annualized hours worked now+2.2%
(the best growth since 2Q07), this should help drive a sustainable recovery.
We find MAN and TBI very attractive due to their exposure and valuation
We think MAN and TBI’s earnings should more than grow into their share prices
by YE10. We also think the IRRs to the mid-cycle (~2012) are attractive for MAN
and TBI at a CAGR avg. of 13% to 22%. We use a DCF, and IRRs to our estimated
mid-cycle share price, to value the staffing shares. Downside risks, particularly to
our Buy-rated names of MAN and TBI include: more pricing pressure than
expected thus lower GM’s, a reversal of the current economic recovery; higher
costs to grow the business than expected (lower incremental margins), and lower
share buybacks. For valuation details and company specific risks see pages 21-24.