• The collapse of house prices in many industrial countries set the stage
for the financial crisis and recession. Many observers therefore regard a
stabilisation of housing markets as an important condition for
sustainable economic recovery. In this article we discuss how far the
correction of house prices has progressed in Europe and the US.
• Based on a range of indicators we find that the correction is fairly
advanced in the US but has still a considerable way to go in Europe.
Further adjustment seems likely in Spain, Ireland, the Netherlands, but
also Italy, France, and, to a somewhat lesser extent, in the UK. The need
for further house price adjustment in these countries poses risks to both
the banking sector and economic growth.
• While house price adjustment is advanced or under way in the industrial
countries, there is an increasing risk of new bubbles in other regions of
the world. This holds in particular for Asian housing markets. House
prices have already increased above the pre-crisis levels in Shanghai and
Hong Kong and they are close to their previous peak in Singapore.