【出版时间及名称】：JPM-EUROPEAN AUTO REVIEW-FEB 2010-100226
      【作者】：jpm
      【文件格式】：pdf
      【页数】：25
      【目录或简介】：
We expect Western European February SAAR to weaken slightly to
13.8MM (vs. 14.1MM in January and 14.9MM in December ‘09) driven
by some m/m declines mostly in Italy. We see some downside to our 2010
12.5MM WE SAAR forecast (-8% y/y) since the Italian government has
decided not to renew the scrappage scheme (Fiat sees Italian sales down
15-16% vs. our estimate of -2%), which if realized could pull 2010 SAAR
down to 12.2MM (-10% y/y). We continue to prefer PSA (on valuation,
improving product cycle, LCV leverage) and Daimler (younger product
portfolio, strong earnings momentum, low exposure to scrappage payback
and upside from trucks recovery).
• WE February SAAR of 13.8MM, US Feb SAAR of 10.4MM: We
expect February SAAR to decline m/m with the biggest declines to come
from Italy (-0.2MM), followed by Spain (-0.06MM) and France (-
0.04MM). In the US, our autos analyst expects February SAAR to come in
at 10.4MM vs. 10.8MM in January '10 and 11.3MM in December ‘09. Our
US analyst believes Feb SAAR will be depressed by 0.2-0.4MM due to the
Toyota recall.
• US/ W Europe January Luxury market share showing sequential
decline on seasonality: The market share of luxury car sales in Western
Europe declined 210bps m/m to 14.5% in January (sales down 10% m/m),
after remaining stable at 16% for preceding three months. In the US as
well, luxury light vehicle market share declined 90bps m/m to 14.0%
(sales down 36% m/m). However, we note that US and W European
luxury car sales in January tend to be seasonally quite weak, which may
distort the overall result (vs. non-luxury segments which were still
supported by scrappage schemes). Indeed, recent comments from Daimler
suggest luxury