英文文献：Biofuels, Climate Policy, And Water Management: Assessing Policy-Induced Shifts On Agriculture’S Extensive And Intensive Margins-生物燃料、气候政策和水资源管理:评估政策对农业粗放型和集约型边际效益的影响
英文文献作者：Baker, Justin Scott,Murray, Brian C.,McCarl, Bruce A.
英文文献摘要：
Biofuel expansion efforts and climate mitigation policy could fundamentally alter land management trends in U.S. agriculture and forestry (AF) by mandating biofuel feedstock production and providing incentives for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction and carbon sequestration from terrestrial sources. Research has shown that biofuel expansion can alter commodity markets, induce agricultural land expansion, and intensify production. Meanwhile, GHG mitigation efforts could limit agricultural expansion, reduce current cultivation, and lower management intensity by incentivizing GHG emissions reduction and carbon sequestration within AF. To date, little work has attempted to quantify biofuel and climate policy-induced shifts together along the extensive and intensive agricultural production margins within a systems-based framework, though such shifts could have resounding implications on agricultural water consumption and quality. This study uses a comprehensive and detailed economic model of the U.S. AF sectors to simulate land management responses to biofuel expansion and GHG policies. While bioenergy production and altered AF management practices are found to significantly reduce GHG emissions, additional water consumption and nutrient use are possible policy outcomes. Specifically, we find that policies that influence shifts to the extensive margin will increase aggregate water use and nutrient application, but lead to lower intensity per-unit area. Conversely, when combined with biofuel mandates climate mitigation incentives lower agricultural land expansion, but lead to higher levels of management intensity. Somewhat contrary to expectations, GHG mitigation incentives cause water and nutrient use intensity to grow at an increasing rate due to the greater level of land use competition. Additionally, important regional trends emerge, as water use and quality concerns grow with the CO2 price in areas with limited GHG mitigation possibilities. This suggests that “water leakage” is possible whereby emissions reduction activities decrease output in one region and stimulate management intensity elsewhere. The potential indirect consequences of combined biofuel and climate mitigation incentives on water resource systems warrant further attention in policy design and future research.

扩大生物燃料的努力和缓解气候变化的政策可以从根本上改变美国农业和林业(AF)的土地管理趋势，强制生产生物燃料原料，并为减少温室气体(GHG)排放和陆地来源的碳封存提供激励措施。研究表明，生物燃料的扩张可以改变商品市场，诱导农业用地扩张，并加强生产。农业扩张,与此同时,可能会限制温室气体减排努力减少当前的培养,和更低的管理激励强度的温室气体减排和碳封存在房颤。到目前为止,小的工作试图量化生物燃料和气候政策性变化一起沿着广泛而密集的农业生产利润在一个系统框架,尽管这些变化可能会对农业用水和水质产生重大影响。本研究使用美国农业部门的一个全面和详细的经济模型来模拟土地管理对生物燃料扩张和温室气体政策的反应。虽然生物能源生产和农业生产管理做法的改变显著减少了温室气体排放，但增加水的消耗和养分的使用是可能的政策结果。具体地说，我们发现，影响转向广泛边际的政策将增加总用水量和养分的使用，但会降低单位面积的强度。相反，如果与生物燃料相结合，就会强制采取缓解气候变化的激励措施，减少农业用地扩张，但会导致更高的管理强度。与预期略有相反的是，由于土地使用竞争加剧，减缓温室气体的激励措施导致水和养分使用强度以越来越快的速度增长。此外，在温室气体缓解可能性有限的地区，由于对水的使用和质量的关注随着二氧化碳价格的上升而增加，出现了重要的区域趋势。这表明，“漏水”是可能的，因为减少排放的活动减少了一个区域的产出，而刺激了其他区域的管理强度。混合生物燃料和缓解气候刺激措施对水资源系统可能产生的间接后果值得在政策设计和未来研究中给予进一步关注。