[出版时间及名称] 20100112 "Global Investment Bank Tracker"

[作者] JP Morgan

[文件格式] pdf

[页数] 60

[目录或介绍]
We introduce our monthly Investment Banking Industry Tracker with key tables and charts regarding investment banking trends and key valuation metrics for global investment banks.

- Following IB data trends illustrated in our report, we assume FI revenues decline 27% in 4Q09E on average with some IBs expected to see 36% declines compared to 3Q on a clean basis. For Equity revenues we expect 11% declines in 4Q09 on average with Investment Banking revenues increasing +12% vs. 3Q with Dealogic fee data up 26%. First week of January we witnessed ECM/DCM -13% YoY.

- Generally, the 4Q09 can be broken down into two segments – in the first half of 4Q, revenues run-rate trends continued in line with previous quarters whereas from mid-November we witnessed a material “early Christmas” slowdown. Fixed Income in 4Q09 was driven by volatility declining by c10% across Credit and Rates, leading to lower customer activity and proprietary trading opportunities. We also witnessed spreads declining within commodities and credit businesses based on our
analysis. Following an unusually strong 3Q09 Equity volumes declined by 5-10% in 4Q. In addition, volatility declined by c5% leading to fewer flow proprietary opportunities. We note Bonus Tax for US IBs to be booked in 2010E vs Europeans in 4Q09E, in our view.

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