【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月南非宝矿石行业研究报告
        【作者】：加拿大皇家商业银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：64
        【目录或简介】：

SA PGMs
Still Bullish, But For Different Reasons
Following the latest half-yearly results session, we update our forecasts and
outlook for the South African PGM Sector.
Supply
• Cash Flow - The South African PGM Industry surprised us in the extent to
which costs have been curbed and capex has been cut over the past six
months. The Industry has now moved from being some 50% under water, to
less than 5% of operations delivering negative cash flow at current metal
prices. This, we believe, is negative for further strong PGM price upside.
• Costs - Still, given the built-in cost pressures in SA (power, labour and
other input costs), the current positive cash flow can be lost very quickly
with some 30% of production dropping into the red on just a 10% increased
cost assumption. This, coupled to the fact that capex may well have to be
increased again, makes for continued "marginal" profitability which
remains a positive driver for metal prices.
• Volumes - The surprising thing, is that every producer continues to talk
expansion. If these promises are to be trusted, the platinum output could be
expanding at some 4% per annum over the next two years - this is bad for
metal prices.
• Growth - We continue to believe the mid-tier and junior producers will be
where real growth will be seen (volumes and profit) and this, as far as we
are concerned, remains the best reason for the majors to consolidate the
space - to tap into that, but really to replace some of its own high cost
expansion with lower cost production. This would be a very good
development for metal prices.
Demand
• Autocats - Much stronger than expected car sales numbers in January and
February should be very good for palladium demand and price.
• Jewellery - Amazing strength in the Chinese market delivers a strong
positive surprise early in 2010.
• Investment (ETF) - Continues the dramatic charge (60% of last year's
platinum ETF demand covered in the first six weeks of 2010). We don't
expect this to reverse - at least not until we see a +US$1600/oz PGM basket
price (at R/US$7.50) versus about US$1200/oz now.
Bottom Line - Not Done Yet
We believe the "pressure" (cost increases, power shortage, lower output)
driving PGM prices higher has reduced in the past six months, but is still high
enough to justify further metal price upside support. We now also have a more
positive view on demand – driven off better than expected car sales numbers
as well as surprisingly robust jewellery demand in China.
We still like Lonmin, Aquarius, Northam, Anooraq, Eastern Platinum,
Platinum Australia, Platmin, PTM and Jubilee Platinum.