【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球专业化学药行业研究报告
        【作者】：COWEN and COMPANY
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：516
        【目录或简介】：

Specialty Pharmaceutical Pulse
Industry Outlook
March 2010 Deal or No Deal?
Analysts
Ian Sanderson
(617) 946-3922
ian.sanderson@cowen.com
Ken Cacciatore
(646) 562-1305
ken.cacciatore@cowen.com
Steve Scala, R.Ph., CFA
(617) 946-3923
steve.scala@cowen.com
Anant Padmanabhan, CFA
(646) 562-1374
anant.padmanabhan
@cowen.com
Christopher Hamblett, Ph.D.
(617) 946-3950
chris.hamblett@cowen.com
Brett Kaplan, M.D.
(617) 946-3893
brett.kaplan@cowen.com
Please see addendum
of this report for
important disclosures.
www.cowen.com
Conclusion: M&A considerations are increasingly important factors in the
investment outlook for the specialty pharmaceuticals sector: many of the
companies are both potential targets and acquirers. Our analysis of specialty
pharma M&A activity since 2007 reveals that the dominant trend has been intrasector
consolidation: larger specialty pharma companies buying smaller players
to expand pipelines and/or commercial platforms. With patent challenges and
pipeline gaps continuing to be overhangs for many of the larger specialty
pharma players, and balance sheet cash yielding low returns, we expect this
consolidation trend to continue in 2010-11. Primary targets are most likely to be
smaller companies with late-stage development candidates, but King and
Medicis could be attractive for their strong commercial platforms in attractive
specialty markets. And Teva again may expand its fast-growing international
generics franchise via Ratiopharm. Specialty pharma companies that we believe
will have important non-M&A related valuation-enhancing events in 2010
include Eurand, Forest Labs, Inspire, King, Nektar, and Shire.
􀁑 Slowdown In New Drug Launches Will Drive Strategic Moves.
Raised regulatory hurdles have delayed several new specialty pharma drug
launches from 2010 to 2011 and beyond, exacerbating existing pipeline
gaps. We now project just six new drug rollouts in each of 2010 and 2011,
versus twelve in 2009. The result is likely to be a step-up in consolidation
activity, as the larger specialty pharma companies scramble to fill the voids.
We have included in this report prospective "shopping lists" for the larger
specialty pharma companies, reflecting our views of strategic needs.
􀁑 Multiple Valuation Catalysts On Tap In 2010. Investors are taking a
more cautious approach to binary events in specialty pharma so far in 2010,
an attitude reinforced by the Dimebon debacle. Nonetheless, several smaller
companies face key milestones in 2010 which could significantly alter
valuation perspectives, including Alkermes, Eurand, Inspire, and Nektar.
Table Of Contents
Page
Our Coverage Stocks – In Rough Order Of Preference................................ 4
Deal Or No Deal?...........................................................………………………7
What Drives The Consolidation Trend? ..........................………………………9
What’s Left Of Health Care Reform? …………........................................... 13
The State Of Specialty Pharmaceuticals…………....................................... 14
Improving Pipeline Views May Elevate Select Names ................................ 15
Specialty Pharmaceuticals Sector Valuation Analyses............................... 17
Fundamental Outlook: Slow In ’10, Better In ‘11...................................... 18
Generic Drug Universe Overview ............................................................. 23
Company Reviews:
Alkermes ...............................35
Allergan.................................57
Cubist Pharmaceuticals ..........67
Elan .......................................83
Endo Pharmaceuticals ..........115
Eurand.................................137
Forest Labs..........................165
Impax..................................215
Inspire Pharmaceuticals .......227
King Pharmaceuticals...........241
Medicis............................. 267
Medivation...........................277
Mylan Labs……………………..299
Myriad Genetics ...................311
Nektar ...................................................327
Par Pharmaceuticals................................341
Pozen .....................................................351
Santarus .................................................363
Shire Pharmaceuticals .............................379
Sucampo ................................................399
Teva Pharmaceuticals..............................421
Theravance.............................................443
Transition Therapeutics ..........................465
Vivus ......................................................483
Watson Pharmaceuticals..........................501