【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月澳门博彩行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：40
        【目录或简介】：
Derating looks set to end soon. Although gross gaming revenue (GGR)
has been exceeding expectations for many months now, Macau gaming
stocks have failed to excite, as the market is still discounting the potential
impact from China’s credit tightening. However, the current growth rate is
very strong, and the government can adopt only limited measures to slow
growth, which we believe should result in substantial earnings upgrades
across the sector in the near future. That said, risk-reward is more attractive
than it was six months ago.
■
Raising GGR forecast and thus casino operators’ EBITDA estimates by
3-12%. We have revised up our FY10 gross gaming revenue forecast by
8.5% to US$18.6 bn, implying 25% YoY growth, the highest estimate on the
street. We believe our forecast is still conservative, as it implies that monthly
GGR for the remainder of the year will be 10% lower than that in February
2010. We estimate that the US$1.4 bn upward revision in 2010 GGR will
result in an additional EBITDA of US$240-280 mn being shared among
casino operators. We thus revise up our EBITDA forecasts by 3-12%.
■
Buy SJM, Melco, MPEL and Galaxy: We continue to rate SJM as our top
pick on the back of its attractive valuation and strong earnings growth
momentum. We have upgraded MPEL from Neutral to OUTPERFORM as
strong market growth consolidated its recovery and cut its refinancing risk
significantly. Melco looks even better to us due its deep stub discount. We
view Galaxy as an event-driven stock, with the completion of debt financing
as a potential near-term rerating catalyst.