【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月美国汽车轮胎行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：53
        【目录或简介】：

Investment thesis: We are initiating coverage of
Goodyear (GT) at Underweight (PT $14) and Cooper
(CTB) at Overweight (PT $24). We prefer CTB due to
attractive valuation and tailwinds from Chinese import
tariffs, which should help it offset materials inflation and
industry mix headwinds better than GT.
We believe the mid-decade “golden age” of tires
driven by price / mix gains is over. We are cautious
on long-term tire demand as miles driven per tire falls
and tire longevity improves. In the near term however,
we see pent up demand driving a surge in replacement
volumes. Recent price increases across the industry
seem to be sticking, though higher list prices on a
commodity product like tires could lead to weaker mix as
consumers try to keep transaction prices low, which the
market seems to be missing. This could be positive for
CTB with its mid-low end focus and lower price points.
We are less bullish than consensus on GT as we
think price/mix is unlikely to offset raw material inflation
unlike the previous cycle. FCF is also likely to remain
weak as pension costs and capex tick up. Valuation at
current levels appears fair and our DCF-derived $14 PT
translates to 4.7x EV/2011e EBITDA, in-line with history
and the peer group. Our UW-rating (within the Autos &
Auto Related space) is based on our view that there is
very little upside for the stock, our below-consensus
estimates and our relative preference for CTB over GT.
CTB’s attractive valuation trumps cost concerns.
We see significantly more upside for CTB than GT and
our est. are above consensus. Our positive view is
based on price gains in CTB’s main end-markets from
Chinese tire tariffs, improved utilization / restructuring
benefits and CTB’s better exposure to the high-growth
local China market, which should help temper the LIFO
impact of materials headwinds. Valuation at 4x EV /
2011e EBITDA is also attractive vs. peers / history.

Contents
Investment Case 3
Global Tire Comps: Benchmarking Analysis 4
3 Key Value Drivers Drive Industry Debates 5
Volume 6
Price 9
Mix 10
Goodyear Tire: Upcoming Headwinds Constrain Upside 12
Key Debates
When will margins recover? 12
How is GT positioned in a noisy demand environment? 18
Is cash flow strong enough to drive value? 19
Model & Estimates 20
Valuation 20
Cooper Tire: Attractive Valuation Trumps Cost Concerns 21
Key Debates
Does Chinese tire tariff tailwind offset brand weakness? 24
Will pricing gains outpace materials inflation? 25
How big is the China opportunity for CTB? 26
Model & Estimates 28
Global Tire Industry Snapshot 29
Full Financial Models 34