【出版时间及名称】：agilis-oil services industry-headed for the next upcycle-100317
      【作者】：agilis-oil services industry-headed for the next upcycle-100317
      【文件格式】：pdf
      【页数】：31
      【目录或简介】：
So, we are wrapping up the Q409 earnings season, recognising a positive shift in
the oil services contractors outlook from just one quarter ago. Activity is picking
up and the companies are more positive and opportunistic. We register a 9.3%
increase in E&P spending for 2010 as we approach the end of the Capital budget
announcements. With a steep recovery in the Baker Hughes US Rig Count and the
oil price holding up above $70/bbl, we are confident that our 2H 2010 upcycle
scenario is just months away.
E&P spending increasing
Now a large majority of our ‘Top 40’ oil companies have announced their 2010
capital budgets. So far we register a 9.3% increase, in the upper range of our 5%‐
10% base case scenario. The growth is mainly driven by NOCs and the smaller
independent companies. A stable oil price above the critical $70/bbl mark and
improved capital markets, resulting in increased investments and activity.
Q4 earnings season signals uptick in activity
The Q409 earnings season is over, showing oil service co’s more confident than
just one quarter ago. The numbers, in itself not important, came mainly in above
consensus for both the OSX and the Norwegian oil services companies. The
guidance and the management tone were significantly improved from just one
quarter ago, and many positive signals such as reinstated dividends and increased
investments were given. Activity is picking up and the oil services companies are
again building backlog. In particular we see increased activity in seismic, subsea
and shallow‐water (JackUp) drilling.
Overweight oil services sector, PGS top pick
We recommend to overweight oil services shares over the coming months, with
PGS being our top pick amongst the OSE listed shares. As E&P spending is
increasing, activity improving and confidence is back we believe oil services shares
should outperform index over the next months. We increase our target for Acergy
to NOK130/share (NOK115). We reiterate our STRONG BUY on PGS, and BUY
ratings for ACY, SDRL and SEVAN.