【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国宏观经济研究报告
        【作者】：BNP百富勤
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：52
        【目录或简介】：

Policy reorientation
􀂃 The NPC has reoriented its macro-economic policy, shifting from “growth” towards
“structural adjustment” and “managing inflation expectations”.
􀂃 With 8% GDP growth and 9m new jobs creation target, there is now less focus on
growth and more on lowering the CPI target to 3% from 4%, underscoring the shift to
tightening.
􀂃 The government has reiterated its “appropriate loose-monetary policy,” now aiming for
RMB7.5t in new loans, compared to RMB9.6t of 2009; the 17% M2 target is 10ppt lower
than it was in 2009.
􀂃 We expect strict enforcement of RMB7.5t quota, with intensified open market
sterilization of excess liquidity, a 150bp hike of RRR in 1H and two 27bp hikes in
benchmark rates while CPI is above 3% and GDP is overheating at more than 11%.
􀂃 Fiscal expansion will be unchanged, with a target of 2.8% GDP or RMB1050b fiscal
deficit; however, the government vows to regulate and curb new investment projects
and monitor local government financing vehicles (LGFV).
􀂃 Premier Wen believes that the RMB is not under-valued and has refuted US pressure
on RMB and trade; the PBOC governor has linked RMB/USD depegging to a strong
global economic recovery. We expect there may be a chance the RMB will depeg in 2H,
though intensifying China-US conflicts could complicate China’s external demand and
might delay RMB migration to a managed float.
􀂃 The NPC has intensified its scrutiny of housing policies, and the central and local
governments are under pressure to curb surging prices and boost the affordible publichousing
supply. MLR has further tightened land-auction policies; SOE land acquisition
has been tightened, and the credit-tax policy could be further tightened.
􀂃 Concerns of investment overheating, worsening overcapacity, high inflation, asset
bubbling, NPL rising and local government fiscal insolvency are increasing. Though still
under debate, macro-economic tightening has begun.
􀂃 However, given the complexity of the domestic and international outlook, it is difficult for
the government to initiate hard-line tightening. It has opted for a gradual tightening
policy according to the overheating or inflation situation.

Contents
1) Overheating growth.................................................................................................................................................................. 4
1Q GDP on track to 11.5%................................................................................................................................ 4
Strong liquidity fanning inflation risks................................................................................................................. 6
Risk scenarios: Uncertain export and tightening risk ......................................................................................... 9
2) NPC: Policy reorientation....................................................................................................................................................... 10
8% GDP imply structural adjustment ............................................................................................................... 10
Monetary tightening: Managing inflation .......................................................................................................... 10
Fiscal expansion, but curbed local borrowing .................................................................................................. 12
RMB not under-valued, de-pegging timing issue ............................................................................................. 16
3) Property: Tightening not eased............................................................................................................................................. 18
NPC scrutinizing housing policies .................................................................................................................... 18
Property cooling expected in 2H ...................................................................................................................... 20
Not over-built, crash unlikely ............................................................................................................................ 21
4) Macroeconomic monitors ...................................................................................................................................................... 23
GDP growth..................................................................................................................................................... 23
Industrial performance..................................................................................................................................... 23
Sources of Growth........................................................................................................................................... 29
Money and Inflation ......................................................................................................................................... 34
Market Performance and rates......................................................................................................................... 37
5) Appendices.............................................................................................................................................................................. 41
12-Months Major Economic Indicators............................................................................................................. 41
12-Month Major Industrial Products ................................................................................................................. 43
Industrial Profitability ....................................................................................................................................... 44
Urban Fixed Asset Investment Growth By Sector............................................................................................ 45
BNP Paribas Forecast Of Major Economic Indicators ..................................................................................... 46