【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲广告代理行业研究报告
        【作者】：荷兰国际集团
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：108
        【目录或简介】：
Contents
Advertising agencies 1
Strong foundations 2
Investment snapshot 5
Summary 7
Valuation 18
Key drivers of value 21
European agencies at a glance 38
Companies 47
Publicis Groupe .......................................................................................................48
WPP plc...................................................................................................................62
Aegis Group Plc ......................................................................................................76
Havas SA ................................................................................................................90
Disclosures Appendix 105

Strong foundations
The sector’s YTD re-rating is pricing in a cyclical recovery in advertising in
developed markets. In our view, it does not yet price in the medium-term
renewed pricing power of the agencies, resulting in higher margins, and/or the
faster market growth fuelled by digital and emerging markets.
We believe Publicis, given its current asset base and organisation, is the
company that will lead the pricing model change. It will therefore benefit from
increased operating margins, ahead of consensus expectations.
Publicis our top pick
Consensus already favours Publicis but we are more bullish, due to our view on the
fundamental shifts taking place in the sector.
We believe Publicis’ margins can improve beyond historical highs in the medium term
because of changes in the business model – as highlighted by its own senior
management. Therefore, we forecast an operating margin of 17.2% by 2012 versus a
consensus forecast of c.16%.
Our judgement is based on the fact that Publicis has the best cohesive digital asset
base, one of the more advanced measurement platforms in the industry, a strong
integrated management team, and an understanding of the required pricing model
changes, combined with the required client relationships to deliver against it.
Finally, Publicis continues to have a strong management focus on cost control and is
leading internal initiatives to significantly increase its business efficiencies.
We formed our view on the sector and the key companies within it through
proprietary research and an extensive series of about 40 interviews with media,
advertising and market research senior executives, as well as some of their
clients and technology suppliers.
A new business model
In recent years the industry has been exposed to increasing pricing pressure by
clients. We believe this will soon significantly reduce and agencies will regain control of
pricing. Data, analytics and new scientific skill-sets are opening new avenues for
differentiating service activities, priced on an ROI and value-creation basis rather than
traded on price. In addition, agencies can further shift from commission to fee-based
services, with fees reflecting strategic consulting services that command higher prices.
These two activities, combined with the adoption of operational efficiencies, will lead to
stronger top lines and higher margins, above historical highs, for those companies that
can offer differentiated services and scale.
Residual concerns about disintermediation, which have continued to negatively affect
the market, are unfounded, in our view. Most agencies work in partnership with new
media, as they have in the past with old media.