Pathways to a Low Carbon Economy: Energy systems modelling
Contents
TU1. INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................. 1 UT
TU1.1. UKERC ENERGY 2050 OVERVIEW ...........................................................................1 UT
TU1.2. UK ENERGY POLICY CONTEXT..................................................................................3 UT
TU1.3. OVERVIEW AND USE OF ENERGY-ECONOMIC MODELS.......................................................6 UT
TU1.4. REPORT STRUCTURE ............................................................................................7 UT
TU2. THE UK MARKAL (MED) MODEL .......................................................................... 7 UT
TU2.1. MODELLING METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................7 UT
TU2.1.1. UK MARKAL model development and validation.............................................7 UT
TU2.1.2. UK MARKAL elastic demand (MED) model .................................................. 10 UT
TU2.1.3. Key updates for UKERC Energy 2050......................................................... 14 UT
TU2.1.4. Core model drivers................................................................................. 19 UT
TU2.1.5. Carbon pathway scenarios....................................................................... 20 UT
TU3. SCENARIOS AND RESULTS................................................................................ 24 UT
TU3.1. DECARBONISATION PATHWAYS.............................................................................. 24 UT
TU3.2. ENERGY-ECONOMIC SYSTEM IMPLICATIONS................................................................ 28 UT
TU3.3. KEY SECTORAL AND ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRADE-OFFS ................................................ 43 UT
TU4. INSIGHTS AND CONCLUSIONS......................................................................... 53 UT
TU4.1. INSIGHTS FROM CARBON AMBITION PATHWAYS........................................................... 54 UT
TU4.2. INSIGHTS FROM 80% REDUCTION SENSITIVITY RUNS ................................................... 56 UT
TU4.3. POLICY DISCUSSION OF THE SCENARIOS................................................................... 57 UT
TU4.3.1. UK energy and carbon policy instruments .................................................. 58 UT
TU4.3.2. Application of energy demand policies to MED model scenarios..................... 62 UT
TU4.3.3. Application of energy supply policies to MED model scenarios....................... 64 UT
TUREFERENCES ........................................................................................................ 68 UT
TUAPPENDIX A: FULL UK MED SCENARIO RESULTS.................................................. 73 UT
TUA1: DETAILED RESULTS ON CARBON AMBITION SCENARIOS .................................................. 73 UT
TUA2: DETAILED RESULTS ON 80% REDUCTION SENSITIVITY SCENARIOS ..................................... 88 UT
TUAPPENDIX B: CARBON EMISSION FACTORS ....................................................... 102 UT