【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲水泥行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：36
        【目录或简介】：
Defensive cement prices in 2009
underscore forecast profit recovery
 Rebound in US cement volume from 2011
to accompany structural growth in EM
 Reiterating Overweight (V) ratings on
Holcim and Lafarge; maintain
Underweight (V) rating on CRH
Buy case on cement stocks intact
with US swing-back on horizon
We believe that performance in the US will be the key swing
factor for Holcim and Lafarge shares over the next 12 months.
The market already assumes continued EM volume growth, and
we expect the North American operations of Holcim and
Lafarge to generate a quarter of our forecast group EBIT growth
to 2013, of 113% and 83%, respectively. We expect
oligopolistic supply structures to maintain cement prices in
developed markets, leading to profit swing-back on cement
volume growth of 9% pa in the US in 2011 and 2012, and at a
muted pace in Europe from 2011.
We forecast US construction growth of 3% in 2011 and 8% in
2012, based on the new transport funding bill in Congress and
the expectation that US housing starts will partially recover
from current depressed levels. We raise our 2013 EBIT forecast
for CRH 7% owing to its 47% exposure to North America.
Cement sales at Holcim and Lafarge should outperform our US
forecasts as they operate in states where the proportion of
foreclosed housing is two-thirds of the current US average.
Pessimistic outlook priced into stocks
Holcim and Lafarge are trading at the bottom of their valuation
ranges on EV/EBITDA at 5.2x and 5.3x and PE multiples (9.5x
and 7.3x, respectively), based on mid-cycle 2012 earnings
forecasts. We have reduced our target price on Holcim to
CHF115 (CHF120) and maintained Lafarge at EUR90; these
levels imply potential returns of 46% and 67%, and 2012e PE
multiples of 13.8x and 12.2x, respectively. We are reiterating
our Underweight (V) rating on CRH after raising the target
from EUR15 to EUR17.5, which is 7% below the share price.
We believe this fairly prices in the US recovery at a 2012e
EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.9x and PE multiple of 13.7x.