【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球物流行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：60
        【目录或简介】：
Following the late Q4 rally in global freight demand we lift
our macro forecasts a touch for 2010. But trend growth in
the next few years will still be lower than in the last upcycle
 For stock picking, we remain focused on the winners and
losers in this lower growth environment, and on market
position, pricing power and fundamental value
 We are OW(V) on DP-DHL and Panalpina and UW(V) on
Maersk and TNT. We upgrade DSV to OW(V) from N(V)
Freight volumes: During the late Q4 global stock-build, shipments increased on
average by 15% y-o-y. Hence, we are a bit more positive about 2010 and lift our
growth forecasts for seafreight and express parcels to 5% (from 4%) and air cargo to
6% (5%). But the real story remains medium term demand, which due to a slowing of
off-shoring and fragile end-demand is unlikely to return to the boom trends of 2003-
07. Pricing: Strong Q4 demand also lifted freight rates globally. We refresh our
bespoke supply-demand models for air and sea container freight; a sustained rate
recovery is unlikely due to capacity overhang. Forecasts: Filtering this analysis to our
companies, 2010 sector sales growth is forecast at a fairly sluggish 5.6%. But profits,
helped by full year impact of 2009 efficiencies, should lift by 26% y-o-y. However,
following this rebound, profit growth in the next few years looks less rosy. For 2011-
12, we calculate a CAGR of c10% - well down on c16% achieved in the last upcycle.
Valuations: We also report on movements in consensus forecasts and valuations; the
better news is that stocks have not over-run, the forward PE (2011e) is c16.0x –
similar to this point in the last up-cycle. Stocks: We remain neutral on the sector
overall and therefore more focused on stock picking. DP-DHL and UPS, both
OW(V), are well placed strategically. FedEx (N/V) is up with events. TNT (UW/V),
to us, still appears too narrowly focused to generate acceptable cross-cycle growth.
We remain UW(V) on Mærsk; container shipping is still a potent value-trap despite
some pick up in volumes and rates. On the forwarders, we upgrade DSV to OW(V)
from N(V) and maintain our OW(V) on Panalpina. Kuehne (N/V) is up with events.
DP-DHL is our key Overweight. TNT and Mærsk are key Underweights.