2020 Year Ahead: A World in Transition
2020年：转型中的世界
December 2019
2019年12月
CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICE
总投资办公室
Investment Strategy Overview —
投资策略概述-
Executive Summary
执行摘要
OVERVIEW
概述
The year ahead in 2020 represents another milestone in the post-credit crisis era. This expansion is the longest on record in the U.S. at over 127 months and has included numerous volatile episodes just about every year of that period. The post-crisis decade has included new monetary policy experiments, a double oil price collapse, central bank balance sheet expansion and contraction, negative interest rate debt totaling over $17 trillion at one point, unexpected world leadership changes, a Brexit vote, and a U.S. and China trade war, just to name a few.
2020年是后信贷危机时代的又一里程碑。这是美国有记录以来最长的一次扩张，超过127个月，而且几乎每年都会出现大量波动。危机后十年包括了新的货币政策试验、双油价崩溃、中央银行资产负债表扩张和收缩、负利率债务总计一度超过17兆美元、意想不到的世界领导权变动、BrxIT投票以及美日贸易战，仅举几例。
Heading into 2020 we maintain our bullish stance given our view that monetary policy remains accommodative, global growth bottoms in Q1, election uncertainty ultimately fades, and the trade negotiations with China continue to move further into de-escalation mode in general. In addition to our more balanced view and accompanying portfolio strategy we expect two other scenarios to be debated throughout most of 2020. The three scenarios, which we outline on the following pages, are:
进入2020年，鉴于我们认为货币政策仍然宽松，全球经济增长在第一季度触底，选举的不确定性最终消失，以及与中国的贸易谈判继续进一步进入总体上的缓和模式，我们保持乐观的立场。除了我们更加平衡的观点和相应的投资组合策略之外，我们预计在2020年的大部分时间里，还将讨论另外两种情况。我们在以下几页概述的三种情况是：
•• a melt-up scenario in which sentiment turns from bearish or more defensive to significantly more positive, benefiting risk assets significantly;
•市场情绪从看跌或更具防御性转为明显更为积极，从而显著受益于风险资产的融通情景；
•• a balanced view (our base case) that mixes growth optimism with election uncertainty over the summer;
•平衡的观点（我们的基本情况），将增长乐观与夏季选举的不确定性结合起来；
•• a shallow negative performance in which growth falters and geopolitical risks rise.
••增长放缓和地缘政治风险上升的轻微负面表现。