【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月土耳其汽车行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：28
        【目录或简介】：
Export-led recovery in 2010e
We expect 2010 to be a good recovery year for Turkish
exporters, light commercial vehicle (LCV) exporters in
particular. The withdrawal of the majority of incentives in
Europe from the beginning of 2010 as well as in Turkey
(from October 2009) should reduce passenger car (PC)
demand this year, while the outlook for LCVs is notably
better in line with improving economic trends. Turkish
commercial vehicle exporters in particular should see
benefits in H1 from clean dealer pipelines in Europe (versus
a massive excess inventory problem at the same time last
year, slashing production) and from a pick-up in commercial
activity in H2. As early confirmation of these expectations,
Turkish LCV exports had a very strong start to the year,
almost doubling in the first two months year on year.
Overweight (V) ratings on Ford Otosan, Tofas
We upgrade Ford Otosan to Overweight (V) from Neutral (V)
with a new DCF-generated target price of TRY13.5 (from
TRY10.5). Its LCV models, particularly the Transit, should
enjoy strong volume recovery this year, improving its capacity
utilisation and margins. The shares have underperformed Tofas
(by 2.5% y-t-d) and offer one of the highest dividend yields
(7.3%), to be distributed from 1 April. We also find Tofas’
export outlook very attractive, to be further enhanced by its new
Doblo model in terms of both volumes and margins. Upside to
the story may come from better-than-expected exports to Russia
thanks to scrappage incentives. Our target is raised to TRY7.0
(from TRY5.80) and we reiterate our Overweight (V) rating.
Importer Dogus Otomotiv (DOAS) looks disadvantaged in
terms of its domestic market dependency, but its likely market
share gains this year (due to better vehicle availability) as well
as improving vehicle inspection business (hence higher profit
contribution) are balancing factors to its story. Maintain Neutral
(V) with new target of TRY6.8 (from TRY6.0).