Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs关税的宏观经济后果
作者：

• Davide Furceri
• Swarnali A. Hannan
• Jonathan D. Ostry
• Andrew K. Rose
  

AbstractWe study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data.



摘要：
我们研究关税的宏观经济后果。我们使用1963-2014年间151个国家/地区的年度数据面板，根据本地预测估算冲激响应函数。我们发现，从中期来看，关税提高会导致国内产出和生产率的经济和统计显着下降。关税上涨还导致更多的失业，更高的不平等和实际汇率升值，但对贸易平衡的影响很小。当关税在扩张过程中提高，对发达经济体而言，以及关税提高而不是降低时，对产出和生产率的影响往往会放大。我们的结果对我们的方法产生的大量干扰是可靠的，并且我们用行业水平的数据来补充我们的分析。

关税的宏观经济后果.pdf
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