【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲银行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：
The key conference debate was to what extent bank
regulation, macro/sovereign risks, funding and
expectations of “new normal” earnings power could
overhang a sector that is otherwise a geared play on
credit/macro.
Deutsche and Barclays stood out as two of the most
confident presentations due to lower marks and
slightly lower falls in FICC trading helping YoY
progression. This fits with our note with Oliver Wyman
and one of our ‘best ideas’ to be long a number of
investment banks (including Barclays, BNP, CSG).
Barclays strikes us as the cheapest way to play this at 1x
TNAV, although we up DBK’s EPS and price target and
modestly trim CSG.
The UK stood out as the most clear credit recovery
trade, with positive revisions to expectations on
provisions vs. stable in much of Europe. In fact many
CEOs/CFOs felt the “new normal” level of provisions
might be higher than current market forecasts. Barclays
is our preferred stock to play the UK.
We also saw potential for upward revisions in
market expectations in some of the 2nd tier EM
banks due to stronger growth potential being less well
priced in – specifically, for parts of CEE, Turkey and
Mexico compared with Brazil and China. In EM we
prefer Standard Bank, Yapi Kredi and Garanti. In
Europe, our preferred pick is Unicredit (1.1x TNAV).
Whilst we do not favour domestic Spain, we think BBVA
(1.4x TNAV) is cheaper than SAN (1.7x), where market
expectations for Mexico are likely to improve, while
Brazil is already richly priced.
As the banks still have low visibility on earnings, few
banks gave investors conviction in major earnings
changes in core Europe, and margins, regulation and
funding remain unresolved issues.
In div fins, we prefer asset managers over exchanges
given regulatory risks, cyclical and competitive
pressures, with SDR, HGG, 3i, and Baer our top picks.