英文文献：Searching for the Urban Fringe: Exploring Spatio-Temporal Variations in the Effect of Distance versus Local Interactions on Residential Land Conversion Using a Conditionally-Parametric Discrete-Time Duration Model-寻找城市边缘:利用条件参数离散时间持续时间模型探讨距离与局部交互作用对住宅用地转换的影响的时空变化
英文文献作者：Wrenn, Douglas H.,Sam, Abdoul G.,Irwin, Elena G.
英文文献摘要：
The spatial configuration of land use can have a significant impact on both market and non-market outcomes. One type of land use configuration that has received considerable attention in recent decades - because of its impact on the efficiency of public service provisioning, on environmental quality and on the productivity of agricultural land - is fragmented development. Many theories have been presented to explain these fragmented development patterns including variable densities, competing land uses and heterogeneity in agents' expectations. More recently, a number of authors have hypothesized that it is the reduction in congestion and the increase in open space amenities in exurban areas that have attracted people thus creating an increase in low-density, scattered development. While many of these hypotheses have been addressed empirically, most of the work has looked at these factors separately. In addition, most of the previous work has been conducted using global parametric models, which make it difficult to capture the spatial heterogeneity of the impact of the different factors and the resulting response. To address these shortcomings it is necessary to have micro-level data that can capture the spatio-temporal nature of the land conversion process and can separately identify the most important factors, on both sides of the market, as well as have a modeling technique that can capture the potential for spatial heterogeneity and non-stationarity in the effects of the variables across space. In this paper, we fill this gap in the existing land use literature by combining several unique panel datasets of historical land use change for Carroll County, Maryland with an original nonparametric modeling technique to separately identify the heterogeneous effect of amenities, local congestion and real options prices effects on the exurban land conversion decision. The results from our model show that factors on both sides of the market matter and that these factors are not spatially stationary. We find that much of the fragmented growth pattern observed in our study region can be explained by the differential effect of local land use interactions across space. This result is particularly important for policy makers interested in protecting farmland, reducing public costs and protecting valuable ecosystem services and biodiversity.

土地利用的空间配置对市场和非市场结果都有显著影响。近几十年来，由于对公共服务提供效率、环境质量和农业用地生产率的影响，一种土地利用结构受到了相当多的关注，这就是碎片化发展。许多理论被提出来解释这些碎片化的发展模式，包括不同密度、竞争性的土地使用和主体预期的异质性。最近，一些作者假设，是拥堵的减少和郊区开放空间便利设施的增加吸引了人们，从而创造了低密度、分散开发的增加。虽然这些假设中的许多都是通过经验来解决的，但大多数研究工作都是单独研究这些因素。此外，之前的大部分工作都是使用全局参数模型进行的，这使得很难捕捉不同因素的影响和结果响应的空间异质性。解决这些缺点是必要的微观数据,可以捕获土地转换过程的时空性质,可以单独识别最重要的因素,两岸的市场,以及建模技术,可以捕获潜在的空间异质性和non-stationarity跨空间的变量的影响。在这篇文章中,我们填补这一空缺在现有土地利用文献结合几个独特的面板数据集的历史为卡罗尔县土地利用变化,马里兰州一个原始的非参数建模技术分别确定设施的异构作用,当地交通拥堵和真实期权价格对远郊土地转换的影响决定。从我们的模型的结果显示，市场双方的因素是重要的，这些因素不是空间平稳的。我们发现，在我们的研究区域观察到的大部分碎片化增长模式可以用不同空间的局部土地利用相互作用的差异效应来解释。这一结果对于有意保护农田、降低公共成本和保护宝贵的生态系统服务和生物多样性的决策者来说尤其重要。