【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月台湾光伏行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：24
        【目录或简介】：
CS raises 2010E global solar demand by 27%: CS’s global solar energy
research team recently raised 2010 global sell-in solar demand estimate
from 10 GWp to 12.7 GWp, representing a 27% upward revision. The
reasons for the revision include better demand from Germany despite the
July FiT cut, as well as better demand in other countries.
■
Company guidance looks more realistic now: The top six Taiwanese
solar cell makers have guided for 2010E shipments to more than double
from those in 2009. The shipment guidance implies a significant global
market share gain (from 19% in 2009 to 27% in 2010E) based on our
previous global solar demand forecast. The implied market share
assumption looks more realistic now after our upward solar demand revision.
The market share is now estimated to remain flattish (from 20% in 2009 to
21% in 2010).
■
Consolidation helps improve long-term competitiveness: Taiwanese
leading tech companies have announced their intentions or taken actions to
enter the green energy industry, and some of them have chosen M&A as the
first step. Their interest in green energies suggests a promising future for the
industry and indicates more intensified competition ahead, a potential threat
to standalone solar energy companies. On the other hand, M&A activities,
supported by the leading tech companies’ deep pockets, should help
consolidate the industry and improve Taiwanese solar energy companies’
long-term competitiveness against their vertically integrated Chinese peers.
■
Stretched valuations: We are less concerned about the Taiwan solar
energy sector as the guided aggressive shipment now looks in line with the
growth in global demand. However, structural disadvantages (less vertically
integrated and a lack of access to end-markets), along with stretched
valuations, keep preventing us from turning positive on the stocks. We are
now NEUTRAL on Motech (TSMC investment) and SAS (strong
semi/solar/LED wafer shipment) and remain UNDERPERFORM on Gintech
(less vertically integrated).