【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国石油开采加工行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：33
        【目录或简介】：
Producers are subsidizing natural gas drilling with
the increasing profitability of liquids. The earnings
uplift from liquids is from both pure oil targeted projects
and liquids rich gas drilling where higher prices are
supporting returns. The impact of this trend is higher
than expected upstream activity than should be
supported by natural gas prices alone (12-mo strip at
$4.81/Mcf). In addition, M&A activity continues for liquid
exposure (i.e. SD acquisition of ARD (not-covered).
Ultimately, this is a bearish trend for natural gas
production, as this product cross subsidy continues to
support upstream activity at current commodity prices.
We see a production-weighted average uplift of
~$2.15/Mcfe for 2010 across our Natural Gas names.
While clearly a wide dispersion is apparent across the
E&Ps, depending on gas / oil production mix, even the
most gassy producers (>75% by volume) are enjoying a
~$1.00/Mcfe uplift to pricing from currently wide ratios.
This helps explain producer behavior in a period of low
natural gas prices, in our view. While this trend is
reflected by consensus estimates (street commodity
estimates reflect a ~13x oil:gas ratio for 2010e), we see
upside as the forward curve currently discounts a ~18x
ratio for 2010e. As expectations for a sustained period of
wider oil:gas ratios increase, look for higher liquids
content plays (e.g. Bakken, Eagleford, SW Marcellus,
Cana) to continue to garner market attention.
Activity still needs to fall. We maintain our view that
~$4/Mcfe natural gas prices should lead to a drop in
upstream activity levels during 2Q. Despite the apparent
subsidy between products at the corporate level, we do
not think producers can claim to be effective stewards of
capital and continue to drill natural gas wells. While a
pull back in activity remains a criterion for an
improvement in sentiment supporting a fundamentally
driven rally in the group, we expect oil and liquids rich
names to continue to outperform. Focus names on this
trend remain NBL, SU, CNQ and XEC.

Contents of The Weekly Explorer Page
Investment Perspective 2
Morgan Stanley Estimates vs. Consensus 3
Consensus EPS Revisions & Short Interest 5
Comparative Performance Tables 6
Investment Thesis 9
Commodity Macro 10
Commitments of Traders Report 11
Natural Gas Markets 12
Differentials 13
Supply & Demand 14
Fundamental Drivers 15
Switching Economics 16
US Power Market Metrics 17
Crude Oil Markets 18
Crude Fundamentals 19
US Gasoline Fundamentals 20
US Distillate Fundamentals 21
Chemical Markets 22
Hedges 23
GDP Forecast, Leading Indicators & Actuals 26
Publications & Content Index 27
Valuation Methodologies & Risks 28
Disclosure 29