【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲电力行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：48
        【目录或简介】：

Continued gas glut to depress prices
 Deteriorating outlook for 2012 and 2013
 We cut our ratings on E.ON to N (TP
EUR29) from OW, on RWE to N (TP68)
from OW, GDF Suez to UW (TP EUR28)
from N, CEZ to UW (TP CZK900) from N;
we raise Enel (TP EUR4.5) to N from UW
The latest impact of global gas over-supply: pressure on
power prices The depressing impact of abundant cheap gas
on forward power prices looks unlikely to go away in the
near term. Whilst confirmation of a more vigorous economic
recovery may underpin forward prices after their 10%+ falls
in 2010 to date, a re-balancing of the gas market will also, in
our view, be required to restore margins followed, later on,
by upward pressure resulting from the need for investment
on plant to replace post-2013 closures. We see some
likelihood of moth-balling, but only if conditions deteriorate
even further and not to the extent we saw in Germany (for
example) in 2000-02.
Downgrade of selling price assumptions and stock
ratings We are revising down our assumptions for German
achieved power prices in 2012-13 by 9-10%. With the large
energy companies having hedged virtually all of 2010 output
and the majority of 2011, the negative impact on earnings is
chiefly in 2012 and 2013 (for which they are currently
selling power). We have downgraded our ratings as follows:
E.ON from OW (TP EUR32) to N (TP EUR29); RWE from
OW (TP EUR78) to N (TP EUR68), GDF Suez from N (TP
EUR29) to UW (TP EUR28), and CEZ from N (TP
CZK960) to UW (TP CZK900), whilst raising Enel from
UW (TP EUR4.2) to N (TP EUR4.5) and staying UW on
Verbund (TP EUR22 from EUR23) - (V) flag removed - on
Fortum (TP EUR17) and on EDF (TP EUR36 from EUR37).
These downgrades reinforce our preference within the
utilities for water (recent upgrades to OW of Veolia
(VIE.PA, EUR25.7, TP EUR29) and Suez Env (SEVI.PA,
EUR17.0, TP EUR22), stocks short in generation (OW on
Centrica, (CNA.L, 294p, TP 330p)) and regulated or semiregulated
energy companies (OW on National Grid (NG.L,
639p, TP 740p and EDP (EDP.LS, EUR2.90, TP EUR3.20)).