【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月亚太造船行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：38
        【目录或简介】：


Shipbuilding
Minor Recovery Continues;
Prefer Medium Vessel Play
Investment conclusion: While reviewing deliveries /
new orders trends for Korea and China, we found
significant delivery slippage for tankers and
containerships with strong bulker delivery growth; and
relatively solid small-to-mid-sized ship orders. Given the
orderbook risks and financing difficulties, we don’t think
normalized new order recovery is likely to come this year.
In our view, the best way to play this trend before
full-blown new order recovery is Hyundai Mipo, as it
focuses on medium-sized vessels.
Delivery delays notable among Korean shipyards:
We have noticed severe delivery slippage among
Korean shipyards. Korea’s deliveries declined 14% YoY
in 1Q10, while Chinese showed 76% YoY delivery
growth. This is because of Korea’s focus on tankers and
containerships, while China mainly builds bulkers.
Fewer deliveries would lead to faster-than-expected
shipping recovery, which is positive for shipbuilding
industry’s recovery.
Medium tankers & bulkers to drive new order
recovery: Although it would be premature to expect an
early cycle recovery in 2010, shipping companies should
see improved free cash flow and cash position in 2011,
which could trigger an industry turnaround. Based on
orderbook as a percentage of fleet and recent shipping
rates, we expect medium tanker and bulkers to start new
order upturn.
Higher earnings for beyond 2012: Given higher new
order projection and future ship price increases on steel
price hike, we raised Korean shipbuilders’ estimates
beyond 2012. Their near-term earnings are down a bit
on steel cost hikes, but raised by 1.3-4.7% and price
targets are slightly revised up accordingly.