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2006-03-24
英文文献:Forecasting the Public's Acceptability of Municipal Water Regulation and Price Rationing for Communities on the Ogallala Aquifer-预测公众对奥加拉拉含水层社区的市政用水管制和价格配给的可接受性
英文文献作者:Edwards, Jeffrey A.,Wade, Tara R.,Burkey, Mark L.,Pumphrey, R. Gary
英文文献摘要:
Among many, increasing the price of municipal water is considered to be the most effective mechanism for enhancing municipal water conservation, whether during times of drought or not. However, increasing the price of something that is considered to be, literally, a life-giving resource is politically taboo. This study follows two others that evaluate survey data with Likert scale responses, in determining whether or not constituents would outright reject the idea of using price to ration municipal water. But it goes several steps further--it controls for both community and respondent level variables, calculates and evaluates in-sample response probabilities, and most importantly, attempts to forecast the attitudes of constituents in communities that are not in our survey sample. In the end, our model produces both in-sample and out-of-sample response probabilities that are reasonable, and relatively stable across communities; it therefore provides communities and researchers with a means to gauge public support for pricing initiatives.

其中,提高市政用水价格被认为是加强市政节水最有效的机制,无论是在干旱时期还是非干旱时期。然而,在政治上,提高被认为是赋予生命的资源的价格是禁忌。在本研究之前,还有两项研究用李克特量表的回答对调查数据进行评估,以确定选民是否会直接拒绝使用价格来定量配给城市用水的想法。但它更进一步——它控制了社区和被调查者水平变量,计算和评估样本内响应概率,最重要的是,试图预测在我们的调查样本之外的社区的选民的态度。最后,我们的模型得出的样本内和样本外响应概率都是合理的,并且在社区中相对稳定;因此,它为社区和研究人员提供了一种手段,以衡量公众对定价举措的支持。
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