英文文献：Price Expectations and Supply Response-价格预期和供应反应
英文文献作者：Arnade, Carlos Anthony,Cooper, Joseph
英文文献摘要：
Price in agricultural supply equations is usually the expected price. In general, models of agricultural supply response assume that their representation of producer expectations is correct. If this assumption is wrong, the supply response parameter will have embodied within it an estimate of the expected price distortion, biasing the estimated parameter. Furthermore, no effort has been made in existing models to allow for heterogeneous price expectations. In almost every supply model, one price estimate is used to represent the price expectations of hundreds or thousands of producers, which could masks a wide range behavior among heterogenous producers. Rather than assuming the model’s representation of producer expectations is correct, the goal of this paper is to use revealed producer behavior to assist in the estimation of producer’s expected prices. To explicitly address producers’ formation of the expected price, this study jointly estimates the supply equation and the price expectation equation. The empirical application is a pooled time-series cross-section data analysis of U.S. wheat and corn supply data at the county level.

农产品供给方程中的价格通常是预期价格。一般来说，农业供应响应模型假设它们对生产者预期的表示是正确的。如果这一假设是错误的，则供应响应参数将在其中体现预期价格扭曲的估计值，使估计值偏倚。此外，在现有模型中没有考虑到异质价格预期。在几乎每一个供应模型中，一个价格估计被用来代表成百上千个生产者的价格预期，这可能掩盖了异质生产者之间的广泛行为。本文的目的不是假设模型对生产者期望的表示是正确的，而是利用揭示的生产者行为来协助估计生产者的期望价格。为了明确地解决生产者对预期价格的形成问题，本研究联合估计了供给方程和价格预期方程。经验应用是一个汇集的时间序列截面数据分析美国小麦和玉米供应数据在县一级。