【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国半导体行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：33
        【目录或简介】：

We expect a repeat of the last few earnings seasons with Consensus estimates on most
semiconductor companies increasing amid comments that business is “good” to “better than
good” due to improving demand and inventory replenishment. As a result, we expect the
semiconductor stocks to trade up into earnings this week, then we think peak soon after
Intel reports. We then expect a sell-off into May as the next demand indicator will likely
be the JPMorgan Technology conference in late May.
• Lead times remain extended – good for 2Q10 guidance. We expected lead times to
decline during 1Q10 following TI’s lead but they haven’t. As a result, order rates have
remained strong due to a desire to build inventory amid double ordering and improved
demand. We expect semiconductor stocks to continue to trade well until lead times
decline across the board.
• Consensus estimates should go higher. We believe the outlook for 2Q10 could be
above-seasonal for several companies driven by improved demand and inventory builds
throughout the food chain. We expect the strongest results and guidance to come from
Intel, Microchip, On Semi and Cypress.
• Expect strongest results/outlook from PC components – again. We expect the
strongest results and outlook to again come from semiconductor companies servicing the
PC end market such as Intel, ON Semi and AMD due to strong demand and
corresponding inventory builds.
• Wireless appears to be OK. We believe order rates from the handset end market are
roughly seasonal.
• Slightly raising estimates for several companies. Due to the better than expected
outlook, we are slightly raising estimates for AMD, ALTR, CY, LLTC, MCHP, ONNN,
and XLNX.
• Worried about communications end market. We are most concerned that order rates
from the communications end market will drop due to an inventory build combined with
lower demand from the China basestation end market.
• Expect seasonal 2Q10 guidance from some companies. For the first time in many
quarters, we expect a handful of companies to guide for normal, seasonal growth during
2Q10 due to inventory built in the supply chain and easing demand in the
communications and handset end markets. We expect seasonal guidance from Texas
Instruments, Xilinx, Altera and RF Micro Devices.
• Inventory going up everywhere. We expect inventory to increase across the board as
semiconductor companies, distributors and OEMs have moved to an aggressive stance
built around strong demand. Our checks indicate the distribution channel now has
“normal” inventory with the desire to build more and we expect Intel and TI to build
inventory as well. Our channel checks indicate the biggest inventory build will come
from the communications end market. We would note our tracker for inventory at
semiconductor indicates aggregate inventory will be above average, similar to 1Q04.
• We are most concerned with TXN, XLNX, and ALTR. We believe Texas
Instruments, Xilinx, and Altera have the highest risk of an inventory correction.