【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月印尼银行业研究报告
        【作者】：O.S.K. RESEARCH
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：104
        【目录或简介】：
Growth potential not to be missed
Indonesia‟s modest loan-to-GDP of 26% suggests an enormous potential for further banking penetration given a close linkage between economic and credit growth. The system is highly liquid with loan-to-deposits of 75%. The economic engine is ready to roar: OSK economists forecast GDP growth of 5.7% and we believe 20% loans growth is possible in 2010.
Strong earnings growth to drive our Overweight call
Bank stocks rose 15% YTD on rejuvenated country and sector profiles. The rise was on sound fundamentals and we expect banks‟ earnings to stay robust with EPS growth ranging from 16% - 23% for the next two years. Our Overweight call is based on: 1) credit growth prospects remaining buoyant as the healthy consumption-driven economy expands (we forecast 19% loans growth in 2010, 18% in 2011), 2) net interest margins will remain strong even as rates rise and competition increases. We expect slight margin pressure on BCA and BRI, while Danamon and Mandiri should see higher NIMs, 3) a benign asset quality environment ahead with provisioning charges falling by 97bp in 2010, 30bp in 2011 and 4) strong CAR of 13% and above even after deductions for Basel II implementation this year.
Valuations will hit new benchmarks
Banks‟ valuations are headed towards new highs but we judge that it is driven by improvement in long-term economic fundamentals rather than short-term euphoria. We are both upbeat and Overweight on the sector. We initiate coverage with BUY rating on BRI (solid exposure in MSME, attractive at 12.1x P/E – 21% EPS growth or 2.96x P/BV – top-of-the sector ROE of 28%), Mandiri (continued transformation theme with the highest growth prospects), Danamon (recovery story with a unique merger angle), and HOLD on BCA (limited upside with its rich premium of 16.7x P/E – 22% EPS growth or 4.23x P/BV – 27% ROE). Continued strong economic growth, well-contained inflation and management execution are sector catalysts. Risks to our Overweight call are 1) negative international developments as Indonesia is a high beta market, 2) an unexpected rise in inflation should oil prices rise significantly and 3) deterioration in the now benign political environment.

Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
MACRO OUTLOOK 4
INVESTMENT THESIS 6
OUR CALLS 15
OVERVIEW OF INDONESIAN BANKING 17
THE COMPANY BASICS 24
COMPANY PROFILES
Bank Central Asia 30
Bank Mandiri 47
Bank Rakyat Indonesia 64
Bank Danamon 82
SECTOR COMPARISON 99