【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月北欧保险行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：28
        【目录或简介】：

The Nordic insurers are good quality companies,
which is adequately reflected in the share prices, in
our view. The companies demonstrate many best
practices (consistently low combined and expense
ratios) and benefit from a favourable competitive
environment. We assume coverage of Sampo (top
Nordic pick) and Topdanmark at Equal-weight and
TrygVesta at Underweight. We see better value in other
high quality non life names, which have gone through a
significant improvement in the last underwriting cycle,
while valuation multiples have remained flat. We would
recommend investors switch out of the Nordic names
into (non life) Zurich, Amlin, Lancashire or (life) Aviva,
L&G, Aegon and ING for their restructuring stories.
What’s new: We see two areas of risk where the market
is pricing in too large a difference in cost of capital
between the Nordic and high quality non-life players.
1. Our analysis suggests reduced reserve strength
at the Nordics. Our assessment of non-life reserve
strength indicates a decline over the last couple of years
at Topdanmark and TrygVesta, while Sampo has shown
a more stable and robust reserve run-off. Although we
do not anticipate reserve deficits, the paid-to-incurred
ratios of all three companies have deteriorated in recent
years, which suggests current reserve release levels
could decline.
2. 1Q losses are a reminder of insurance volatility.
Earnings volatility is structurally lower at the Nordics, but
their 1Q losses were surprisingly high in contrast to the
global losses experience by peers — where we feel
improving risk management has yet to be priced in.
Nordic pricing improving, but this is well known. It
will be the underlying claims inflation that will drive
earnings performance. We assume a steady
improvement in claims inflation, but a sharper move
here could cause us to upgrade our earnings forecasts.