我选了28个行业的指数,R=ln(P_t)-ln(P_t-1)首先用matelab里面的APP: distribution fitter,得到了每个序列t分布的均值、标准差、自由度,然后把这个自由度代入到garch模型里面。可是每个序列做出来GARCH系数与ARCH系数之后恰好等于1,该怎么办?
tdist = struct('Name','t','DoF',3.14984); %这个自由度是用distribution fitter得到的
Mdl = garch('GarchLags',1,'ArchLags',1,'Distribution',tdist);
[estMdl,estParamCov,logL] = estimate(Mdl,returns);
结果如图:
GARCH(1,1) Conditional Variance Model (t Distribution):
Value StandardError TStatistic PValue
_________ _____________ __________ __________
Constant 8.997e-06 1.862e-06 4.8319 1.3523e-06
GARCH{1} 0.92694 0.01034 89.645 0
ARCH{1} 0.07306 0.010964 6.6637 2.6703e-11
DoF 3.1498 0 Inf 0