【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国教育行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：42
        【目录或简介】：
Q1 Earnings Preview: Mixed Expectations, But
Regulatory Environment Still Dominates
Dialogue
■
Bottom line. ESI and DV will kick off Q1 earnings season this week. We
think ESI, BPI, UTI, LINC, EDMC and CECO have the best shot at reacting
well to earnings releases; our earnings views on DV, STRA, CPLA, COCO,
LOPE and APEl are more mixed.
■
What’s in focus? During earning season, we think investors should focus
on gauging countercyclicality risk/status, getting completion/placement rate
data (to evaluate benefits of potential gainful employment exemption), and
whether future enrollment growth rates could be hurt by companies’ turning
away more under-qualified students to address changing regulatory
landscape.
■
Q1 earnings dates. Companies/ reporting dates are ESI & DV– 4/22, CPLA
– 4/27, STRA -- 4/29, BPI & UTI – 5/3, COCO & LOPE – 5/4, LINC, EDMC &
CECO – 5/5, APEI – 5/6. In this note, we provide detailed previews for all
education companies except Apollo, which reported in March.
■
ESI (Thurs, 4/22 AM). Investors may react well to $0.05+ EPS upside and
enrollment/starts upside, despite expected starts growth slowdown. We think
regulatory landscape will be bigger share price driver in coming weeks.
■
DV (Thurs, 4/22 AM), CPLA (Tues, 4/27 AM), STRA (Thurs, 4/29 AM),
APEI (Thurs, 5/6 PM). On the heels of stocks’ nice run-ups, we suspect
modest EPS upside versus consensus may not take stocks higher.
■
BPI (Mon, 5/3 AM), UTI (Mon, 5/3 PM), LOPE (Tues, 5/4 PM), LINC (Wed,
5/5 AM), EDMC (5/5 PM), CECO (5/5 PM). We expect shares to react
positively to enrollment and EPS upside versus consensus. BPI’s and
CECO’s outstanding regulatory issues and LOPE’s tougher applicant
screening standards give us pause, but strong result may overshadow these.
■
COCO (Tues, 5/4 AM). Although we expect Q3 EPS /guidance upside, we
worry slower organic starts growth may bring countercyclicality into focus.
■
Thesis update. We continue to worry that countercyclicality will hurt growth
in coming quarters and we believe that, even if the Gainful Employment
proposal is eased somewhat, the broader regulatory landscape is likely to
remain challenging for the foreseeable future; we expect the DOE to tighten
the Incentive Compensation rule and to generally seek to crack down on
schools' recruiting under-qualified, under-informed students.