宏观经济时间序列证明，提高能效并不能节省能源

Macroeconomic Time-Series Evidence That EnergyEfficiency Improvements Do Not Save Energy

作者：

斯蒂芬·布伦斯（Stephan B. Bruns）

阿莱西奥·莫内塔（Alessio Moneta）

戴维·斯特恩（David I. Stern）

The size of the economy-wide rebound effect is crucial for estimating the contributionthat energy efficiency improvements can make to reducing energy use and greenhousegas emissions. We provide the first empirical general equilibrium estimate of theeconomy-wide rebound effect. We use a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) modelthat is estimated using search methods developed in machine learning. We apply theSVAR to U.S. monthly and quarterly data, finding that after four years rebound is around100%. This implies that policies to encourage cost-reducing energy efficiency innovationare not likely to significantly reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.
整个经济的反弹效应的大小对于评估提高能效可以减少能源使用和温室气体排放的贡献至关重要。我们提供了整个经济反弹效应的第一个经验性一般均衡估计。我们使用结构向量自回归（SVAR）模型，该模型使用在机器学习中开发的搜索方法进行估算。我们将SVAR应用于美国的月度和季度数据，发现四年后反弹约为100％。这意味着鼓励降低成本的能效创新的政策不太可能显着减少能源使用和温室气体排放。