正 文 目 录
前 言 .....................................................................................................................................................................................1
1 新医改的缘起 .................................................................................................................................................................2
1.1 三轮医改，相辅相成 .........................................................................................................................................2
1.1.1 第一轮医改——源于看病难，止于看病贵...........................................................................................2
1.1.2 第二轮医改——“非典”突袭，无疾而终...........................................................................................3
1.1.3 第三轮医改——集大成者，任重道远 ..................................................................................................3
1.2 “看病难、看病贵”的根源 ..............................................................................................................................4
1.2.1 医疗资源总量不足、分布不均 ..............................................................................................................4
1.2.2 医疗保障体系不健全、医疗费用分摊不合理.......................................................................................5
2 新医改最终方案的主要内容 .........................................................................................................................................7
2.1 总体目标 .............................................................................................................................................................7
2.2 四大体系 .............................................................................................................................................................7
2.2.1 公共卫生服务体系 .................................................................................................................................7
2.2.2 医疗服务体系 .........................................................................................................................................8
2.2.3 医疗保障体系 .........................................................................................................................................8
2.2.4 药品供应保障体系 .................................................................................................................................9
2.3 八大支柱 .............................................................................................................................................................9
2.4 五个重点 ...........................................................................................................................................................10
3 新医改是医药行业的世纪盛宴——需求分析 ............................................................................................................ 11
3.1 需求总量扩张 ................................................................................................................................................... 11
3.1.1 政府投入增加医药行业需求 ................................................................................................................ 11
3.1.2 医疗保障体系的完善，激发居民的就医热情.....................................................................................12
3.1.3 日本经验的启迪 ...................................................................................................................................13
3.2 需求的结构转变 ...............................................................................................................................................14
3.2.1 基层医院大量建设、医疗条件逐步改善 ............................................................................................16
3.2.2 运用价格杠杆等政策引导医疗需求向基层医院倾斜 .........................................................................16
3.2.3 县中心医院的加强将对处方药的销售产生重大影响 .........................................................................16
3.2.4 医保向重病大病倾斜将使重症用药面临较大机会.............................................................................17
4 谁能拥有新医改盛宴的入场券——供给分析 ............................................................................................................18
4.1 我国医药行业的供给现状 ...............................................................................................................................18
4.2 新医改将促进我国医药产业集中度提升 ........................................................................................................19
4.2.1 普药生产企业和医药商业将首先向规模化集中.................................................................................19
4.2.2 非普药生产企业面临挑战，强弱分化势在必行.................................................................................21
5 新医改投资策略 ...........................................................................................................................................................22
5.1 新医改对各子行业及上市公司的影响 ............................................................................................................22
5.2 新医改2009-2011 年可能推出的主要措施 ....................................................................................................23
6 风险因素 ...............................................................................................................................