【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月西班牙银行业研究报告
        【作者】：MG global
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：29
        【目录或简介】：

We believe earnings drive share prices and that this will ultimately drive
the performance of BBVA and Santander, currently depressed on
concerns over sovereign risk. Both groups will deliver above average
asset growth and profitability over the next three years driven by strong
Latin American franchises. BBVA remains the most profitable bank in our
universe delivering 20% RoE in 2012, with potential for increased
leverage.
» We estimate asset growth in LatAm to average 14% over the next three
years compared to just 2% in Continental Europe. These high margin
growth markets, principally Brazil for Santander and Mexico for BBVA,
are the drivers of earnings growth over the next two years. By 2012
LatAm will contribute 48% - 52% of group revenues.
» We believe Spanish banks are addressing problem loans. We estimate
the impaired asset ratio in Spain to be 10.5% at Santander and 11% at
BBVA, taking into account substandard, foreclosed and purchased
assets. Coverage is 29% and 25%, respectively, or 56% and 45%
excluding loans still performing.
» Exposure to developer loans is low, both banks together have just 15%
market share of loans outstanding. Neither group excessively relied on
the real estate sector for loan growth in recent years. We estimate 47%
of Santander‟s developer book is impaired, compared to the headline
reported 7%. BBVA‟s is estimated to be 39% impaired taking into
account