【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月台湾金融行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：56
        【目录或简介】：
Mid-cycle play in 2010; rate hikes in 2H
the major fundamental driver into 2011
 Cross-Strait negotiations in 1H the
sentiment catalyst for short-term trades
 Chinatrust is our fundamental top pick;
Yuanta the best short-term ECFA play
Mid-cycle. The financial sector is in a mid-cycle recovery
phase but we expect fundamental drivers to improve in 2H,
triggered by rate hikes, and thus better margins, as well as
escalating growth momentum. Higher rates will improve
margins but may also trigger short-term stock market
volatility and valuation losses on fixed income portfolios.
Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) is
likely to be a short-term driver but unrealistic expectations
may lead to irrational market rallies.
2H better entry point for bank-centric FHCs. Given the
economy’s export-led nature (and tech earnings have
strengthened markedly), financials tend to lag the recovery.
Taiwan banks are among the more rate-sensitive regionally, so
2H could be a better entry point when rate hike conviction is
stronger and supported by expectations of economic recovery
leading to loan growth and profit recovery in 2011. We prefer
banks over insurers on quicker margin improvement.
Valuation. Trading at 1.2-1.3x PB, a laggard amid the
recovery. Rate hikes in 2H crucial to helping boost
expectations for a sector re-rating in 2011 from a low base. The
financial sector may be the primary beneficiary of ECFA
sentiment and any rotation out of tech.
Near term, trade the brokers on high market volume on
tech recovery and improved sentiment on ECFA. We
upgrade Yuanta to OW(V) from N(V) on lowered valuation
and being the best ECFA play.
Medium term, look to enter bank-centric FHCs on
signals of profit and ROE recovery, based on rate hikes and
loan growth in an improving domestic economy. Our top
pick on fundamentals is Chinatrust, OW(V), for its stronger
profitability and attractive valuation and China potential. We
also like Mega, N(V), for its stable business, attractive
valuation and strong dividends.
Investment summary 3
Rising interest rates: major
fundamental driver 8
NPL & capital risk: eased;
buffered on the downside 15
Cross-Strait financial
deregulation 20
4Q09 performance review 24
Company profiles 27
Chinatrust (2891.TW) 28
Fubon FHC (2881.TW) 31
Cathay FHC (2882.TW) 34
Mega FHC (2886.TW) 37
First FHC (2892.TW) 40
Yuanta FHC (2885.TW) 43
SinoPac (2890.TW) 46
Shin Kong (2888.TW) 49
Disclosure appendix 52
Disclaimer 55