英文文献：El Ni?no Southern Oscillation Impacts on Crop Insurance
英文文献作者：Tack, Jesse B.,Ubilava, David
英文文献摘要：
Predictive models of climatic phenomena can aid in insurance program design and decision making. Extreme weather outcomes have been linked to the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which globally impacts agricultural production. This study demonstrates that extreme ENSO events alter cotton yield distributions in the Southeastern United States. These impacts translate into economically meaningful effects on crop insurance premium rates. Commercial insurers can use publicly available information to determine if government-set premium rates are mispriced, and in turn extract economic rents via the federally mandated Standard Reinsurance Agreement. By ceding underpriced policies in El Ni?o and La Ni?a years, we find that private insurance companies can reduce paid indemnities by 10–15% on average.