【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月日本银行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：63
        【目录或简介】：

Stock-picking sector
We are initiating coverage of four regional banks. The banking sector has a TOPIX
weighting of around 10%, with major banks accounting for 7% and regional banks
3%. Experience shows that regional banks maintain a stable weighting of 3-4%.
This is because regional banks are traditional commercial banks and their earnings
are not as affected by market fluctuations as major banks. There are 84 listed
regional banks, but their earnings differ widely. Thus, it is more important to look
at regional banks as small caps rather than as a sector.
Theme = utility + growth
Regulations such as Basel III and the Volcker Rule are aimed at preventing
excessive risk taking. This means a return to traditional commercial banking.
Investors globally are looking for companies in utility-like operating environments
with good growth prospects.
Yokohama and Chiba: Buy; Shizuoka and Fukuoka: Hold
We assign a Buy rating to Bank of Yokohama, which we expect to turn in
substantial net profit growth this year on reduced credit costs, and Chiba Bank on
the rising population of its main business area. We believe Shizuoka Bank’s shares
already discount its stable finances and assign a Hold rating. Fukuoka Financial
Group (FFG) has completed the disposal of its merger-related negative legacy and
is now moving to enhance its business strength. We rate the shares a Hold. One
risk for regional bank shares in general is an increase in bad debt, but we see little
chance of a renewed outbreak given the diversification of their lending into small
lots. The risk is rather their bond investment, where their average duration is
getting longer. Regional banks would be the sector most severely affected by
sharp fluctuations in the bond markets.
Shrinking balance sheets may spur industry consolidation
The lack of genuine consolidation in Japan’s regional bank sector stems from the
slow pace of the population decline and the ongoing expansion in their balance
sheets thanks to the shrinking share of major banks in lending and Japan Post
Bank in savings. However, once the balance sheets of more banks begin contract,
we believe that restructuring could proceed rapidly. In Japan, where hostile
takeovers are rare, investment in the event of consolidation should focus on the
acquiring banks rather than the ones being acquired.
Valuation, risks
We use a FY3/11E P/E of 20x, in line with the market consensus for overall sectors,
since the regional bank sector has a beta of around 1. Upside risks include an
unexpected increase in net operating profit or a full-scale industry consolidation,
while downside risks include an increase in bad debt, a slump in bond prices, and
secondary sales by large shareholders.
Table of Contents
Summary 3
1. Regional banks, investment basics (1): stock screening 4
2. Regional banks, investment basics (2): shares track earnings
trends 14
3. Macro factors: demographics are key 18
4. Investment risk 20
5. Industry consolidation: reduced lending is catalyst 29
Bank of Yokohama 35
Shizuoka Bank 39
Chiba Bank 43
Fukuoka FG 47