【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国煤炭行业研究报告
        【作者】：CIMB-GK
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：24
        【目录或简介】：

price should catch up during the traditional peak season in summer. Supply is
tight and exacerbated by transportation bottlenecks and widespread safety
inspections triggered by several serious coal accidents that occurred in late Mar-
Apr. Already, in 1Q10, coal demand has outdone expectations, surging 38% yoy
and prompting us to increase our 2010-11 benchmark coal prices by 5-7%. This
results in EPS upgrades of 5-15% for the coal stocks in our coverage. Yanzhou
Coal is now our top pick instead of China Coal as we believe it has entered a fast
growth phase, backed not only by strong coal price growth but also by new mines
in the pipeline.
• Upping coal price forecasts by 5-7%. Taking our cue from the stronger-thanexpected
38% yoy surge in coal demand and 32% supply growth in 1Q10, we are
upping our 2010-11 coal consumption forecasts by 2-3% while raising output by
1%. This leads to 5-7% upgrades in our 2010-11 benchmark coal price
assumptions. We are also introducing our 2012 coal supply-demand projections.
• Cheap valuations despite promising outlook. These changes result in EPS
upgrades of 5-15% for the coal stocks in our coverage. Coal stocks are now
trading at FY11 P/Es of 8.9-12.4x, which are still way below the mid-cycle
valuations of 9-19x. Yanzhou Coal is now our top pick instead of China Coal as
we believe it has entered a fast growth phase, backed not only by strong coal
price growth but also by new mines in the pipeline. The company should be rerated
upwards. We are raising Yanzhou Coal’s DCF-derived target price from
HK$22 to HK$24. We are also retaining our Outperform ratings on China Coal
(unchanged DCF TP of HK$17.1) and Shenhua Energy (unchanged DCF TP of
HK$48.0).