数据差距和对新型冠状病毒的政策响应

DATA GAPS AND THE POLICY RESPONSE TO THE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS

作者：詹姆斯·H·斯托克（James H. Stock）

This note lays out the basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemiological model ofcontagion, with a target audience of economists who want a framework for understanding theeffects of social distancing and containment policies on the evolution of contagion andinteractions with the economy. A key parameter, the asymptomatic rate (the fraction of theinfected that are not tested under current guidelines), is not well estimated in the literaturebecause tests for the coronavirus have been targeted at the sick and vulnerable, however it couldbe estimated by random sampling of the population. In this simple model, different policies thatyield the same transmission rate β have the same health outcomes but can have very differenteconomic costs.
本注释列出了传染病的基本易感感染恢复（SIR）流行病学模型，其目标受众是希望获得一个框架的经济学家，以了解社会隔离和遏制政策对传染病演变以及与经济互动的影响。一个关键参数，无症状发生率（当前指南中未测试的感染率）在文献中并未得到很好的估计，因为冠状病毒的测试针对的是患病者和脆弱人群，但是可以通过随机估计人口抽样。在这个简单的模型中，产生相同传输速率β的不同策略具有相同的健康结果，但经济成本却大不相同。